Clustered Job Pricing Models for Variable Completion-Time Estimates
Find Innovative SolutionsGenerate Solutions
Solution Overview
Problem
Conventional job pricing methods based on single-point statistics like mean or median fail to accurately capture the variability in job completion times due to differences in personnel and environmental factors, leading to inaccurate cost estimation.
Innovation Solution
Employing cluster-based mixture models derived from historic job completion statistics to identify and model multiple clusters, using functions like Gaussian distributions, and integrating predictions from these clusters to generate precise job pricing estimates.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If single-point statistics (mean or median) are used for job pricing, then the pricing method is simple, but the accuracy of job completion time estimation is poor
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the job completion time distribution into multiple clusters, each representing different work scenarios (e.g., different personnel skill levels, environmental conditions). Instead of using a single mean or median value, the system divides the data into distinct groups and models each cluster separately, thereby capturing the variability and improving estimation accuracy while managing complexity through structured segmentation.
2Measurement precision
If cluster-based mixture models are used to capture variability, then the estimation accuracy improves, but the computational complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary clustering and model training using historical job completion data before actual pricing estimations are needed. By pre-processing the data to identify clusters and establish mixture models in advance, the system captures variability and improves accuracy while reducing the computational burden during real-time pricing operations, as the complex modeling work has already been completed.
3Adaptability or versatility
If multiple clusters are modeled separately, then the variability in job completion times is captured, but the number of parameters increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent employs a universal mixture model framework that can accommodate multiple clusters with different characteristics (mean, standard deviation) while using a consistent mathematical structure. This multi-functional approach allows the model to adapt to various work conditions and personnel types through a single unified framework, capturing variability across different scenarios without proportionally increasing the number of parameters, as the same model structure serves multiple clustering purposes.
Data Source
AI summary
The present teaching relates to method, system, medium, and implementations for job pricing. When receiving information about a new task of a job type, a mixture model representing historic job completion data and including multiple cluster-based models is used to predict job pricing. The multiple cluster-based models characterize corresponding multiple clusters identified from historic job completion data and are used to generate multiple predictions of duration to complete the new task. The predictions generated based on the cluster-based models are integrated based on the mixture model to generate an overall job pricing estimate for the new task.


