Building Comfort Forecasting via Dynamic Model Calibration
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Solution Overview
Problem
It is challenging for non-experts to predict the impact of controlling active elements like heating and shading on interior comfort in buildings due to their combined or antagonistic influences and the complex interactions with building thermal characteristics and external heat transfers.
Innovation Solution
A method for predicting the temporal evolution of interior comfort parameters like temperature, luminosity, or hygrometry, which involves acquiring initial measurement values, forecasting external climatic conditions, and accounting for thermal contributions and exchanges within the building, allowing for dynamic calibration and scenario comparison to optimize comfort management.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If a user controls active elements (heating, shading) to influence interior comfort, then the interior comfort parameter can be adjusted, but it becomes difficult to predict the impact due to combined or antagonistic influences and complex thermal interactions
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by forecasting external climatic conditions (temperature, humidity, solar radiation) in advance and pre-calculating their impact on interior comfort parameters. This allows the system to proactively adjust active elements before the actual thermal effects occur, improving prediction accuracy while managing complexity through advance planning
Solution Approach 2:
The system implements feedback by continuously monitoring actual interior comfort measurements and comparing them with predicted values. The difference between measured and predicted values is used to dynamically adjust the model parameters and improve future predictions, resolving the contradiction between prediction accuracy and system complexity through adaptive learning
2Adaptability or versatility
If multiple active elements are controlled simultaneously to achieve desired interior comfort, then comfort levels can be optimized, but the combined and antagonistic influences make prediction difficult
Solution Approach 1:
The system segments the thermal contributions by separately identifying and quantifying the impact of each active element (heating, shading, ventilation) and each external factor (solar radiation, ambient temperature, humidity). This segmentation allows the system to track individual contributions while managing multiple simultaneous controls, reducing information loss through systematic decomposition of complex thermal interactions
3Measurement precision
If real-time measurements and forecasts are continuously updated to improve prediction accuracy, then adaptive comfort management is achieved, but computational requirements and system complexity increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system applies partial action by updating only the most critical model parameters and forecasts that have the greatest impact on prediction accuracy, rather than continuously recalculating all parameters. This selective updating approach maintains adequate prediction accuracy while reducing computational energy consumption by focusing resources on the most influential variables
Data Source
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AI summary
Terminal and method for forecasting the behaviour of a quantity representative of the interior comfort of a building such as a temperature, a degree of luminosity or a degree of humidity. The method comprises a step (E1) consisting in employing a forecast model (M). The method comprises a step (E2) consisting in acquiring at least one first measurement value (MGI) at a first given instant (t1). The method comprises a step (E3) consisting in employing a first forecast (PGE) of the temporal evolution of a quantity representative of the exterior climatic conditions. The method comprises a step (E4) consisting in establishing a second forecast (PGI) of the temporal evolution by applying the forecast model (M), said second forecast (PGI) comprising an estimation of the value of the quantity representative of the interior comfort for at least one second given instant (t2) subsequent to the first given instant (t1).