Electrical Component Lifetime Prediction Without Temperature Sensors
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for predicting the remaining lifetime of electrical components in building management devices require direct temperature measurement, which is costly and space-consuming, and is not feasible for predicting the lifetime of multiple components simultaneously.
Innovation Solution
A method that estimates the temperature of electrical components using a trained machine learning model, allowing for the prediction of remaining lifetime without actual temperature measurement, and can be applied to multiple components using observed or estimated characteristic parameters.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If direct temperature measurement is used to predict remaining lifetime, then prediction accuracy is improved, but device cost and space requirements increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent uses characteristic parameters (current, voltage, power consumption) as intermediary variables that indirectly reflect temperature conditions. Instead of directly measuring temperature with sensors, the system monitors these electrical parameters which correlate with temperature stress, thereby avoiding the need for physical temperature sensors while still enabling lifetime prediction.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent replaces the physical/mechanical temperature measurement system (sensors, thermocouples) with an electrical parameter-based monitoring system. By substituting direct thermal measurement with electrical parameter analysis, the system achieves temperature-related insights without the complexity of thermal sensing hardware.
2Reliability
If temperature sensors are installed for each electrical component, then remaining lifetime prediction is improved, but manufacturing cost increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent makes existing electrical measurement infrastructure serve multiple functions: instead of solely monitoring operational status, the same current and voltage measurements are used to infer temperature stress and predict component lifetime. This multi-functional use of existing sensors eliminates the need for additional dedicated temperature sensors, reducing manufacturing costs while maintaining prediction reliability.
Solution Approach 2:
The system uses the electrical components' own operational parameters (current draw, voltage drop) to self-diagnose their thermal stress conditions. Each component's electrical characteristics serve as its own temperature indicator, eliminating the need for external sensing infrastructure and reducing overall system manufacturing costs.
3Adaptability or versatility
If multiple temperature sensors are deployed to predict lifetime of multiple components, then prediction coverage is improved, but device complexity and cost increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the monitoring approach by component type rather than by individual component. Instead of installing sensors on each component, the system categorizes components into groups with similar thermal characteristics and uses representative electrical parameter patterns for each group. This enables multi-component prediction coverage while avoiding the complexity of individual sensor deployment.
Data Source
AI summary
The present invention provides a method for predicting a remaining lifetime of an electrical component of an electrical circuit, the electrical circuit being part of a building management device. The method comprises: estimating (S1) two or more estimated temperatures of the electrical component by using a trained machine learning model of the electrical component that is trained based on training data. Further, the method comprises: generating (S2) a temporal course of temperature of the electrical component based on the two or more estimated temperatures; and computing (S3), based on the temporal course of temperature of the electrical component, an indicator for the remaining lifetime of the electrical component. The present invention also provides a method for predicting a remaining lifetime of an electrical circuit being part of a building management device.