Production Tool Component RUL Prediction With DCI Pre-Alarm
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Solution Overview
Problem
Conventional predictive maintenance methods for production tools, such as those using exponential models, fail to accurately predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of components in real-time, leading to potential equipment failures and increased maintenance costs.
Innovation Solution
A predictive maintenance method that involves obtaining and analyzing time-series data from production tool components, using algorithms like ARIMA models and correlation analysis to build aging-feature prediction models, and implementing a pre-alarm scheme with a death-related indicator (DCI) to determine the likelihood of component failure.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Device complexity
If exponential model is used for RUL prediction, then the prediction process is simple, but the prediction accuracy is low
Solution Approach 1:
The patent transforms the raw sensor data into multiple feature parameters through signal processing techniques (FFT, wavelet transform, statistical features). It then selects optimal features using correlation analysis and information gain, and finally inputs these processed parameters into the prediction model. This multi-stage parameter transformation and selection process significantly improves prediction accuracy while maintaining reasonable computational complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent replaces the simple exponential model with a more sophisticated prediction framework that uses machine learning algorithms (random forest, support vector regression, neural networks). This substitution of the prediction mechanism with advanced computational methods enables the system to capture complex non-linear degradation patterns that the exponential model cannot represent, thereby improving accuracy.
2Ease of operation
If scheduled preventive maintenance is performed at predetermined intervals, then the maintenance planning is simple, but the production capacity is reduced
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary analysis of component degradation trends using RUL prediction before actual failures occur. By forecasting the remaining useful life with high accuracy, the system enables maintenance to be scheduled just in time when the component approaches failure, rather than following fixed predetermined intervals. This preliminary prediction action allows optimization of maintenance timing to minimize production disruption.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent transitions from static scheduled maintenance with fixed intervals to dynamic condition-based maintenance. The maintenance schedule is continuously adjusted based on real-time monitoring of component health indicators and updated RUL predictions. This dynamic approach allows the system to extend maintenance intervals when components are healthy and accelerate maintenance when degradation is detected, optimizing production capacity while ensuring reliability.
3Power
If conventional RUL prediction methods are used, then the computational load is low, but the real-time prediction capability is insufficient
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the prediction process into distinct stages: data acquisition, preprocessing, feature extraction, feature selection, and prediction. Each stage processes data independently and can be optimized separately. The feature extraction stage uses efficient algorithms (FFT, wavelet packets) that can process sensor data in real-time, while the prediction stage uses pre-trained models that provide fast inference. This segmentation enables real-time prediction capability while managing computational load effectively.
Solution Approach 2:
The system performs preliminary training of prediction models using historical data offline, storing the trained model parameters for later use. During real-time operation, only inference is performed using the pre-trained models, which significantly reduces computational load compared to training models in real-time. The feature extraction and selection are also pre-computed based on offline analysis, enabling fast real-time prediction with minimal computational resources.
Data Source
AI summary
Embodiments of the present invention provide a predictive maintenance method for a component of a production tool, in which a time series prediction (TSP) algorithm and an information criterion algorithm are adapted to build a TSP model, thereby forecasting the complicated future trend of accidental shutdown of the component of the production tool. In addition, an alarm scheme is provided for performing maintenance immediately when the component is very likely to enter a dead state, and a death related indicator (DCI) is provided for quantitatively showing the possibility of the component entering the dead state.


