Conditional Arrival Time Calculation for Aircraft Sequencing
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Solution Overview
Problem
Pilots and air traffic control (ATC) lack situational awareness regarding potential arrival options and times for aircraft executing a point merge procedure, leading to increased workload and fuel inefficiency.
Innovation Solution
A system and method that determine an alternative lateral trajectory for an aircraft from a specific geographic location along the sequencing route to a merge point, calculate a conditional estimated arrival time based on this trajectory, and transmit this information to an external computing system for improved situational awareness.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If aircraft fly predefined routes or holding patterns to achieve desired separation and sequencing, then air traffic control can manage traffic flow and ensure safety, but ATC workload increases and fuel burn increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system calculates conditional estimated arrival times in advance for multiple alternative trajectories before the aircraft actually flies them. This allows ATC to see potential arrival options ahead of time and make sequencing decisions proactively, avoiding the need for reactive holding patterns that waste fuel.
Solution Approach 2:
The system dynamically generates multiple alternative lateral trajectories and their corresponding conditional estimated arrival times based on current flight conditions. This dynamic approach allows flexible, real-time optimization of flight paths to reduce fuel burn while maintaining safe separation, rather than relying on fixed holding patterns.
2Reliability
If ATC uses radar vectoring for separation and sequencing, then safety and traffic management are improved, but ATC workload increases significantly
Solution Approach 1:
The system provides ATC with feedback in the form of conditional estimated arrival times for multiple alternative trajectories. This information feedback allows ATC to make informed sequencing decisions without requiring intensive radar vectoring, reducing workload while maintaining safety through data-driven clearance decisions.
Solution Approach 2:
The conditional estimated arrival time calculation system acts as an intermediary between the aircraft's flight management system and ATC. It processes trajectory data and provides synthesized arrival time information that mediates the sequencing decision-making process, reducing the need for direct ATC radar intervention.
3Ease of operation
If pilots and ATC lack situational awareness of potential arrival options, then the system is simpler to operate, but decision-making quality and fuel efficiency deteriorate
Solution Approach 1:
The system pre-calculates conditional estimated arrival times for multiple alternative trajectories before they are needed for decision-making. This preliminary computation provides pilots and ATC with advance knowledge of arrival options, enabling informed fuel-efficient decisions without adding operational complexity during critical phases of flight.
Data Source
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AI summary
Aircraft systems and methods are provided for assisting sequencing of aircraft by providing conditional estimated arrival times for short arrivals or early clearances. One method involves identifying a geographic location associated with a merge point for an approach to an airport associated with a flight plan for an aircraft, determining an alternative lateral trajectory for the aircraft from a second geographic location along a sequencing route between arrival and the merge point, determining a conditional estimated arrival time for the aircraft at the merge point based at least in part on the alternative lateral trajectory, and transmitting a message including the conditional estimated arrival time for the aircraft to an external computing system.