Crop Growth Stage Prediction Using Dynamic Threshold Values
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing crop growth prediction systems suffer from low accuracy and significant variation in predicting growth stages, making it difficult to perform timely agricultural tasks and ensure crop quality.
Innovation Solution
A growth prediction device that includes a stage prediction unit to predict growth stages and a definition unit to define threshold values based on actual data, allowing for precise prediction of specific growth stages by integrating growth transition values, thereby reducing prediction errors.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If a growth prediction device uses simple temperature integration methods to predict growth stages, then the prediction process is simple and fast, but the prediction accuracy is low
Solution Approach 1:
The patent changes the parameters used in growth prediction by introducing multiple threshold values (first threshold for specific growth stage, second threshold for accomplishment date) and using integrated temperature values with normalization. This transforms the simple temperature integration into a multi-parameter system that maintains computational efficiency while significantly improving prediction accuracy for both specific growth stages and accomplishment dates.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent segments the growth prediction into distinct phases: predicting specific growth stages using first threshold values, and predicting accomplishment dates using second threshold values. This segmentation allows the system to handle different prediction objectives with appropriate threshold settings, improving overall accuracy without compromising speed.
2Device complexity
If a growth prediction device uses constant reference values for temperature integration, then the calculation is simple, but the prediction accuracy varies significantly
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces dynamic threshold values that can be adjusted based on crop type, growth stage, and environmental conditions. Instead of using fixed constant reference values, the system employs flexible threshold settings (first threshold for specific stages, second threshold for accomplishment) that adapt to different prediction scenarios, thereby improving reliability while maintaining reasonable calculation complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The system incorporates feedback mechanisms by comparing predicted integrated temperature values against defined thresholds and normalization results. This feedback loop allows the prediction device to verify whether predicted growth stages and accomplishment dates align with actual crop development patterns, improving reliability through continuous validation.
3Ease of operation
If a growth prediction device predicts only accomplishment dates, then the prediction scope is limited and simple, but it cannot provide timely information for intermediate agricultural tasks
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the prediction output into two functional components: prediction of specific growth stages (using first threshold values) and prediction of accomplishment dates (using second threshold values). This segmentation enables the system to provide timely information for intermediate agricultural tasks occurring at specific growth stages while also maintaining the ability to predict final accomplishment dates, thereby improving agricultural task timing efficiency without excessive complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The system performs preliminary predictions of specific growth stages and their corresponding dates before predicting the final accomplishment date. This preliminary action provides advance warning for intermediate agricultural tasks, allowing farmers to prepare and execute tasks at optimal times, thereby improving productivity while maintaining operational simplicity through structured prediction steps.
Data Source
AI summary
A growth prediction device includes a stage predictor configured or programmed to predict a growth stage for a crop, and a definer configured or programmed to define, when a period from a reference date to an accomplishment date of the growth stage includes a specific growth stage, a threshold value that indicates a prediction date for the specific growth stage with respect to transition data for the growth stage predicted by the stage predictor. When predicting a next growth stage, the stage predictor is configured or programmed to predict a date on which transition data for the next growth stage reaches the threshold value to be the specific growth stage.