Cyber Risk Scenario Modeling With Feedback for Failure Diversity

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing systems fail to effectively manage and mitigate cyber risks by ensuring diversity among entities to reduce the likelihood of simultaneous failures due to shared vulnerabilities, particularly in cyber insurance and other risk management contexts.

Innovation Solution

A system and method for assessing cyber security risk using a computer agent to collect and analyze data from publicly accessible internet elements, generating disaster scenarios, and dynamically adjusting cyber security policies to mitigate risks by increasing diversity among entities.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If traditional risk assessment methods are used to evaluate cyber security risk, then the assessment process is simple and quick, but the accuracy and comprehensiveness of risk evaluation is insufficient

Engineering Contradiction:
Improverisk assessment accuracyVSAvoidassessment system complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent implements feedback loops where risk assessment results are continuously fed back into the system to refine and update risk profiles. The system collects outcome data from disaster scenario modeling and uses it to dynamically adjust risk assessments, creating a self-improving evaluation mechanism that increases accuracy over time.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

Solution Approach 2:

The system performs preliminary actions by pre-generating disaster scenarios and pre-assessing risk factors before actual cyber incidents occur. This proactive approach allows the system to establish baseline risk profiles and identify potential vulnerabilities in advance, improving the precision of real-time risk assessments.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

2Reliability

If diversity among entities is increased to reduce simultaneous failures, then the likelihood of simultaneous failures decreases, but the complexity of managing and monitoring diverse entities increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvesystem reliabilityVSAvoidmanagement complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent creates a universal risk assessment platform that can evaluate multiple diverse entities using standardized disaster scenario templates and common risk metrics. This multi-functional system handles various entity types (organizations, networks, systems) through a unified interface, reducing management complexity while maintaining diversity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Solution Approach 2:

The system manages diversity by dynamically adjusting assessment parameters and weights based on entity characteristics. Different entities are evaluated using customized parameter sets that reflect their specific risk profiles, allowing the system to handle diverse entities systematically without overwhelming complexity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

3Speed

If real-time risk assessment is implemented to provide actionable feedback, then the timeliness of risk management improves, but the computational resources and processing time required increase

Engineering Contradiction:
Improverisk assessment speedVSAvoidcomputational resource consumption
Core Design Contradiction:
SpeedVSUse of energy by moving object

Solution Approach 1:

The patent implements partial assessment by focusing computational resources on the most critical risk factors and high-priority entities. The system performs comprehensive assessments only when necessary, while using streamlined evaluation methods for routine monitoring, thereby reducing overall computational burden while maintaining real-time capabilities for critical decisions.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #16Partial or excessive action

Solution Approach 2:

The risk assessment process is segmented into multiple stages: initial rapid screening, detailed analysis of high-risk areas, and comprehensive disaster scenario modeling only for critical cases. This hierarchical segmentation allows real-time feedback for urgent matters while conserving computational resources for less time-sensitive evaluations.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Data Source

PatentUS12519818B2Disaster scenario based inferential analysis using feedback for extracting and combining cyber risk information
Publication Date: 2026.01.06 GUIDEWIRE SOFTWARE INC
  • US12519818B2 patent drawing
  • US12519818B2 patent drawing
  • US12519818B2 patent drawing

AI summary

Assessing risk of a cyber security failure in a computer network of an entity includes: assessing risk of an entity, using a computer agent configured to collect information from at least publicly accessible Internet elements, and automatically recommending, based at least in part on the assessed risk, changes to reduce the assessed risk to mitigate the theoretical damage. The assessed risk comprises a cyber security failure risk in a computer network of the entity; and the assessing of risk comprises: generating a disaster scenario that comprises elements of a disaster event; modeling the disaster scenario against a profile of the entity; and determining theoretical damage based at least in part on the modeling.