Decision Tree Valuation for Oilfield Information Acquisition
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current oilfield operations face challenges in effectively addressing uncertainties and missing information, which affect decision-making processes, particularly in valuing the acquisition of future information and reducing uncertainty in oilfield parameters.
Innovation Solution
A method and system that utilize decision trees and statistical sampling to assess the value of acquiring information, considering private and market uncertainties, and determining the best oilfield operation decisions by calculating figure of merit values based on probable contents of uncertainties, thereby optimizing the value assessment process.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If information acquisition is performed to reduce uncertainty in oilfield parameters, then decision-making quality is improved, but acquisition cost and time are increased
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary valuation of future information before actual acquisition occurs. By using decision trees and statistical sampling to calculate the expected value of information in advance, the system determines whether information acquisition is worth the time and cost investment, thereby improving decision-making quality only when justified.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent applies statistical sampling methods to obtain partial information representations rather than complete data acquisition. By sampling from probability distributions of uncertain parameters, the system achieves sufficient decision-making quality without requiring exhaustive information gathering, thus reducing time loss.
2Measurement precision
If comprehensive data collection is performed to reduce uncertainty, then measurement precision is improved, but device complexity and operational complexity are increased
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces physical data collection mechanisms with computational modeling. Instead of deploying additional sensors and measurement devices to reduce uncertainty, the system uses statistical sampling and decision tree analysis to quantify and manage uncertainty, thereby maintaining measurement precision without increasing device complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent transforms uncertain physical parameters into probability distributions and expected values through mathematical modeling. By changing the representation of parameters from deterministic unknowns to statistical quantities, the system achieves uncertainty reduction through computation rather than additional measurement infrastructure.
3Productivity
If future information is acquired to improve operation strategies, then productivity is improved, but loss of substance and energy consumption are increased
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary valuation of future information to determine whether information acquisition will lead to productivity improvements that justify the energy cost. By calculating expected values before acquisition, the system avoids energy-consuming information gathering operations that would not result in net productivity gains.
Data Source
AI summary
The invention relates to a method of performing an oilfield operation of an oilfield having at least one well having a wellbore penetrating a subterranean formation for extracting fluid from an underground reservoir therein. The method steps include analyzing the oilfield operation to generate a decision tree comprising a first decision and a second decision, wherein a first outcome of the first decision dictates acquiring information relevant to the second decision, formulating a figure of merit of the oilfield operation according to the decision tree based on the information and uncertainties associated with the oilfield, determining a value of the figure of merit by modeling the oilfield operation using statistical sampling, and performing the oilfield operation upon making the first decision based on the value of the figure of merit.