Delivery ETA Machine Learning Model With Scenario-Aware Ranges

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing systems for predicting the estimated time of arrival (ETA) in item fulfillment processes face challenges due to varying delivery scenarios, geographic uncertainties, and external factors, leading to inconsistent and inaccurate estimates when using multiple task-specific models or single-point estimates.

Innovation Solution

A scalable machine learning model with a two-layer structure, comprising a base prediction layer and a decision layer, is used to generate a range of ETA predictions, adapting to diverse scenarios and decoupling accuracy from scalability by using a single model to handle various delivery types and user engagement stages.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Adaptability or versatility

If multiple task-specific models are used for different delivery scenarios, then the system can handle diverse delivery types, but the model complexity and computational resources increase significantly

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveability to handle diverse delivery scenariosVSAvoidnumber of models required
Core Design Contradiction:
Adaptability or versatilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent implements a single unified machine learning model that serves multiple delivery scenarios including food delivery, grocery delivery, and package delivery. This universal model replaces the need for separate task-specific models for each delivery type, thereby reducing model complexity while maintaining the ability to handle diverse delivery scenarios. The model achieves this through a shared architecture that processes different input features and generates appropriate ETA predictions for various delivery contexts.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

2Measurement precision

If a single-point ETA estimate is provided, then the prediction is simple to compute, but the accuracy and reliability of the estimate decrease due to geographic uncertainties and external factors

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveaccuracy of ETA predictionVSAvoidcomplexity of prediction model
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent transforms the ETA prediction from a single-point estimate to a probability distribution by changing the output parameter from a deterministic value to a stochastic representation. The model outputs a distribution of possible delivery times with associated probabilities, allowing the system to provide both a most-likely ETA and a range of possible outcomes. This parameter change enhances prediction accuracy and reliability by accounting for geographic uncertainties and external factors without requiring overly complex modeling approaches.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

3Measurement precision

If separate models are trained for different retrieval locations, then the prediction accuracy for each location improves, but the computational resources and training time increase

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvelocation-specific prediction accuracyVSAvoidtraining efficiency
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent merges multiple location-specific prediction models into a single unified model that handles all retrieval locations. This consolidation combines the training data from various locations into a comprehensive dataset, allowing the model to learn location-specific patterns while sharing common features and parameters across all locations. The unified model reduces computational resources and training time compared to training separate models for each location, while maintaining location-specific prediction accuracy through feature engineering and location-aware processing.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #5Merging (Combining)

Data Source

PatentUS20250278691A1Next gen ETA machine learning (ML) system
Publication Date: 2025.09.04 DOORDASH INC
  • US20250278691A1 patent drawing
  • US20250278691A1 patent drawing
  • US20250278691A1 patent drawing

AI summary

One embodiment of the invention includes a computer-implemented method comprising receiving, from an end user device, a request for a delivery; obtaining feature information including (1) retrieval information and (2) transporter information; generating a feature vector from the feature information; generating, using a machine learning model and the feature vector, a probability distribution representing probabilities for delivery times from the retrieval location; providing the probability distribution to a decision layer that includes a plurality of decision modules associated with different retrieval locations or types of retrieval locations, wherein the retrieval information includes an identifier corresponding to the retrieval location or a type of the retrieval location; selecting a decision module corresponding to the identifier; generating, by the decision module, a range of an estimated time of arrival of the transporter based on the probability distribution; and providing, to the end user device, the range of an estimated time of arrival.