Disaster-Affected Area Estimation Using Victim Position Inversion
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing disaster-affected area estimation methods require detailed initial information about the discharge source and types of harmful materials, which is often unavailable at the disaster site, making it difficult to quickly estimate and predict the affected area.
Innovation Solution
A disaster-affected area estimation device and program that uses on-site collected information, specifically the position information of disaster victims, to calculate exposure amounts and define critical values through an exposure calculation formula, allowing for rapid estimation and prediction of the affected area without needing detailed information about the discharge source or material types.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If detailed information about discharge source and material types is collected, then estimation accuracy is improved, but information acquisition time and complexity increase
Solution Approach 1:
Instead of using discharge source information to predict affected areas, the invention inverts the approach by using observed victim positions to反推 the affected area. This inversion eliminates the need for detailed discharge source information while maintaining estimation accuracy, directly resolving the contradiction between accuracy and information acquisition time.
Solution Approach 2:
The invention uses victim position data as a proxy copy for the actual discharge source characteristics. By treating victim positions as representative samples of the affected area, the system can estimate disaster impact without directly measuring or knowing the discharge source details, thus reducing information acquisition requirements.
2Measurement precision
If detailed information about discharge source and material types is collected, then estimation accuracy is improved, but device complexity and operational difficulty increase
Solution Approach 1:
The invention simplifies the system by inverting the causal relationship: instead of discharge source → affected area prediction, it uses affected area indicators (victim positions) → discharge source characterization. This inversion reduces device complexity by eliminating the need for complex discharge source detection and material identification systems.
Solution Approach 2:
The invention extracts only the essential information needed for estimation (victim positions) while eliminating unnecessary complex components (discharge source detection, material type identification). This extraction approach maintains estimation accuracy while significantly reducing system complexity and operational difficulty.
3Ease of operation
If on-site information only is used, then information acquisition ease is improved, but estimation accuracy deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The invention uses victim position data as a representative copy of the affected area characteristics. These positions serve as proxy measurements that capture the essential spatial distribution of the disaster impact, maintaining estimation accuracy while using only easily obtainable on-site information.
Solution Approach 2:
The invention changes the measurement parameter from discharge source characteristics to victim position distribution. This parameter transformation allows the use of simple on-site observation data (victim locations) to achieve accurate affected area estimation, resolving the contradiction between ease of information acquisition and estimation accuracy.
Applied Scientific Principles
This section explains which scientific principles are used to turn an abstract innovation direction into a practical engineering solution.
Function Achieved in This Case
Enables rapid and accurate estimation and prediction of the disaster-affected area using readily available information, facilitating quick decision-making and response during emergencies.
Implementation Method 1
an exposure calculation formula expressing an exposure amount, which is an integrated value of the concentration of a material with respect to time, at a certain time and certain position, by using a diffusivity and flow rate of the material
Data Source
AI summary
By using information collected on-site, estimation of a damage area at that time and also prediction regarding subsequent expansion of a disaster-affected area are performed. The estimation device includes a storage unit that stores an exposure calculation formula expressing an exposure amount, which is an integrated value of the concentration of a material with respect to time, at a certain time and a certain position, by using the diffusivity and flow rate of the material; an information-acquisition unit that acquires position information of disaster victims at a prescribed time as input information; and a calculation unit that obtains a critical value of the exposure amount by applying the position information of each disaster victim at the prescribed time to the exposure calculation formula and that specifies the disaster-affected area at the prescribed time on the basis of the exposure calculation formula for when the critical value is obtained.