Dispersion Nomograms for Real-Time Plume Arrival Prediction
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current methods for predicting airborne contaminant transport and dispersion in urban areas are too slow and inaccurate for emergency response situations, particularly in scenarios with uncertain source locations and shifting winds, requiring faster and more accurate models to support immediate decision-making.
Innovation Solution
The development of DISPERSION NOMOGRAFS, pre-computed contour maps that capture aerodynamic and turbulent effects, allowing for rapid plume predictions and assessments by interpolating into these maps, which are integrated with the CT-ANALYST system for real-time situational awareness.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) using Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is used to model contaminant transport, then accuracy of plume prediction is improved, but computation time increases to hours or days
Solution Approach 1:
The patent pre-computes and stores dispersion nomograms for various wind directions, speeds, and source locations before emergency situations occur. These nomograms capture the complex CFD results in advance, allowing instantaneous lookup and interpolation during actual emergencies without repeating the computationally expensive simulations.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent creates simplified representations (nomograms) that copy the essential information from complex CFD simulations. These nomograms are pre-computed lookup tables that approximate the full CFD results, enabling fast queries while maintaining acceptable accuracy for emergency response decision-making.
2Productivity
If traditional plume prediction methods are used, then computation time is reduced, but accuracy deteriorates due to inability to capture complex urban aerodynamics
Solution Approach 1:
The patent pre-computes dispersion nomograms that encode complex urban aerodynamic effects for various conditions before emergencies occur. During actual emergencies, the system performs fast interpolation queries on these pre-computed nomograms, achieving both speed and accuracy by avoiding real-time complex simulations.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent transforms the continuous CFD simulation problem into a discrete lookup table problem by parameterizing results according to wind direction, wind speed, and source location. This allows the system to switch from computationally intensive continuous simulation to fast discrete table lookup while maintaining accuracy.
3Measurement precision
If detailed CFD simulations are performed for each emergency scenario, then accuracy is improved, but response time deteriorates making the system too slow for crisis management
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs all computationally expensive CFD simulations and stores the results in dispersion nomograms before emergencies occur. During actual emergencies, the system only performs fast interpolation queries on these pre-computed nomograms, reducing response time from hours to seconds while maintaining accuracy.
4Productivity
If Gaussian puff or plume models are used, then computation speed is improved, but accuracy deteriorates in complex urban environments with buildings and terrain
Solution Approach 1:
The patent pre-computes dispersion nomograms that specifically capture urban aerodynamic effects including building wake flows, terrain interactions, and turbulent dispersion for the specific urban environment. These pre-computed nomograms replace generic Gaussian models, providing both fast computation and location-specific accuracy.
Data Source
AI summary
Computer implemented methods and systems work cooperatively to calculate and display plume arrival time of a CBR contaminant and to alert responders to take action, associated with mitigating the CBR contaminant. The methods and systems comprise: performing, plume arrival time operational use routines, including: sensing an unknown CBR contaminant released in a geographic area of interest and then, over a communications network, alerting and causing responders to mitigate the CBR contaminant by displaying realtime graphics on handheld computer implemented graphics devices, as well as host computers and distributed computers, showing current and predicted paths of plumes of the CBR plume, by estimating an initial source location of the unknown contaminant, calculating and displaying on graphic displays, an arrival time of at least one or more plumes associated with the CBR contaminant.