Dual Wind Power Forecasting System for Unreliable Communication Networks
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Solution Overview
Problem
Wind farms located in remote areas face challenges in providing accurate wind power forecasts due to unreliable communication networks, which can result in penalties for deviations beyond ±15% of scheduled generation.
Innovation Solution
A dual forecasting system architecture that combines local and remote forecasting capabilities, with a selection algorithm to choose the most reliable forecast for transmission to regulatory authorities, ensuring forecasts are generated and transmitted even in cases of communication disruptions.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Power
If wind farms are located in remote areas to access better wind resources, then power generation potential is improved, but communication reliability deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The forecasting system is segmented into two independent components: a local forecasting system at the wind farm and a remote forecasting system at a distant location. This segmentation allows the system to function even when communication between the two is unreliable, as each can operate independently to generate forecasts.
Solution Approach 2:
A communication network acts as an intermediary between the local and remote forecasting systems. The system uses this intermediary to exchange forecast information and operational data, allowing the remote system to receive data from the wind farm and the local system to receive guidance or validation from the remote system when communication is available.
2Loss of energy
If forecasts are generated locally at the wind farm, then communication bandwidth requirements are reduced, but forecast accuracy deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The system merges the capabilities of local forecasting (using on-site operational data) with remote forecasting (using advanced computing resources and broader data sources). The forecasting system combines forecasts from both locations, weighted by their respective reliability and accuracy metrics, to produce a final forecast that leverages the strengths of both approaches.
Solution Approach 2:
The forecasting system is designed to be multi-functional, capable of operating in multiple modes: local-only forecasting, remote-only forecasting, and combined forecasting. This universality allows the system to adapt to varying communication conditions and resource availability, selecting the most appropriate forecasting approach for each situation.
3Reliability
If communication networks are used to transmit forecast data, then forecast availability is improved, but system vulnerability to communication failures increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system implements beforehand cushioning by maintaining multiple forecasting pathways (local and remote) and pre-establishing communication protocols for handling failures. When communication failures occur, the system has already prepared alternative methods to generate and transmit forecasts, minimizing the impact of communication disruptions on forecast availability.
Solution Approach 2:
The system dynamically changes operational parameters based on communication conditions. When communication is reliable, the system uses the combined forecasting approach with higher confidence in remote forecasts. When communication fails, the system shifts to local-only forecasting, adjusting the weight and reliability parameters of each forecasting source to maintain optimal forecast accuracy under varying conditions.
Data Source
AI summary
The present discussion relates to generating power generation forecasts both on-site and remote to a wind farm, or other intermittent power generation asset, so as to increase the reliability of providing a forecast to interested parties, such as regulatory authorities. Forecasts may be separately generated at both the on-site and remote locations and, if both are available, one is selected for transmission to interested parties, such as regulatory authorities. If, due to circumstances, one forecast is unavailable, the other forecast may be used in its place locally and remotely, communications permitting.