Dynamic Prediction Scoring for Tournament Engagement
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Solution Overview
Problem
Conventional prediction games fail to maintain high interest in tournaments throughout all rounds, especially in later rounds, as participants know their predictions are incorrect early on, leading to disengagement, and do not reward timely and accurate predictions effectively.
Innovation Solution
A prediction game system that allows participants to submit and change predictions during the tournament, awarding points based on the accuracy and timeliness of predictions, encouraging participants to remain engaged by rewarding correct predictions made sooner rather than later.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If participants submit predictions early in the tournament, then they can secure high points for accurate predictions, but they become disengaged in later rounds knowing their predictions are already incorrect
Solution Approach 1:
The system dynamically adjusts the prediction window and scoring opportunities based on tournament progress. As the tournament advances, participants can submit new predictions or modify existing ones, transforming the static prediction model into a dynamic one that adapts to changing tournament conditions and maintains engagement throughout all rounds
Solution Approach 2:
Participants are encouraged to make preliminary predictions early in the tournament for potential high points, while simultaneously maintaining the ability to update these predictions later. This allows them to secure early advantages while preserving engagement options for later rounds
2Measurement precision
If the prediction game rewards only early accurate predictions, then early predictions are highly valued, but participant interest diminishes in later tournament rounds
Solution Approach 1:
The system implements periodic scoring opportunities throughout the tournament, allowing participants to submit predictions at multiple intervals (early tournament, mid-tournament, late tournament). Each period offers fresh prediction chances with potential points, creating a rhythm of engagement that sustains interest throughout the entire tournament duration
Solution Approach 2:
The scoring parameters are changed based on timing and accuracy. Early accurate predictions receive high points, but later accurate predictions also receive meaningful points. The system adjusts point values dynamically based on when predictions are made and their accuracy, ensuring that participant interest is rewarded throughout all tournament phases
3Duration of action of moving object
If participants are allowed to change predictions during the tournament, then engagement is maintained throughout, but the complexity of tracking and scoring predictions increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system provides continuous feedback to participants about their current predictions, potential points, and tournament status. This feedback mechanism allows participants to make informed decisions about whether to change predictions, simplifying their decision-making process while enabling the system to efficiently track and score multiple prediction changes without excessive complexity
Data Source
AI summary
In a prediction game, the potential value of a participant’s prediction depends on the time when the prediction is submitted. The prediction may pertain to the outcome of a competition in a bracket-style tournament (e.g., the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Championship, or “March Madness”).