Dynamic Time Window Calculation for Aircraft Arrival
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current air traffic management systems rely on static and conservative margins for estimating aircraft arrival times, which are not precise enough to handle the uncertainties of wind conditions, leading to reduced time windows and decreased airspace capacity.
Innovation Solution
A method and device for calculating a more precise time window for aircraft arrival by determining an overall confidence index based on deviations between wind predictions and measurements, stability of winds, source confidence, prediction updates, distance to the arrival point, and communication duration, allowing for dynamic adjustment of margins.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If static and conservative margins are used for estimating aircraft arrival times, then the reliability of predictions is improved, but the time window for arrival becomes unnecessarily reduced
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies dynamics by transitioning from static margins to dynamic margins that adapt in real-time based on actual flight conditions. The system continuously updates the margin values according to measured wind conditions, aircraft performance data, and deviation from predicted parameters, allowing the time window to expand or contract based on actual reliability needs rather than using fixed conservative values throughout the flight.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent implements parameter changes by modifying the margin parameters based on multiple variables including wind measurement deviations, aircraft performance variations, and distance to destination. The system calculates different margin values for different phases of flight, changing parameters dynamically to optimize both reliability and time window utilization.
2Stability of the object's composition
If constant conservative margins are applied, then the system stability is improved, but the airspace capacity and flow optimization are reduced
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements feedback mechanisms by continuously monitoring actual wind conditions, comparing them with predicted values, and using the deviations to adjust margin calculations. The system measures aircraft performance parameters, compares actual vs. predicted values, and feeds this information back into the margin calculation algorithm, creating a closed-loop control system that maintains stability through adaptive rather than rigid means.
Solution Approach 2:
The system transitions from static stability to dynamic stability by continuously adapting margins based on real-time conditions. This allows the system to maintain stability through active adjustment rather than passive conservatism, enabling better airspace utilization while preserving the stability required for reliable ATC operations.
3Reliability
If high margins are used to account for wind uncertainties, then the reliability of time constraints is improved, but the holding circuits increase unnecessarily
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies partial action by using only the necessary margin amount required for each specific flight phase and condition, rather than applying excessive uniform margins throughout. The system calculates partial margins for different segments of the flight based on actual uncertainty levels, applying just enough conservatism to ensure reliability without the excessive margins that would cause unnecessary holding circuits.
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes margin parameters dynamically based on flight phase, wind conditions, and aircraft performance. By adjusting parameters such as wind deviation thresholds, distance-based margin reduction, and condition-specific multipliers, the system optimizes the balance between reliability and holding time, applying higher margins only when actually needed rather than uniformly throughout the flight.
Data Source
AI summary
The invention relates to a method and a device for calculating a time window for a time constraint of arrival of an aircraft at a given point, the aircraft receiving wind predictions and including a sensor for measuring the wind. The method includes a calculation of a first time window, and the calculation of an overall confidence index having the determination of a first confidence index on the basis of a deviation between wind predictions and wind measurements performed by the aircraft, the calculation of a margin for the time constraint on the basis of the overall confidence index, and the calculation of a second window on the basis of the first time window and of the calculated margin.