Electronic Horizon Prediction Using Probability Analysis

Resolve Bottlenecks,
Find Innovative Solutions
Generate Solutions

Solution Overview

Problem

Current electronic horizon systems for driver assistance in vehicles lack accuracy and reliability, leading to incorrect warnings or interventions due to imprecise prediction of future vehicle routes.

Innovation Solution

A method and device that generate an electronic horizon using a heuristic based on map information, incorporating probability analysis and combining multiple heuristics, such as vehicle history, external histories, route parameters, and driver behavior, to enhance prediction accuracy and reliability, utilizing probability calculation and evidence theory for trustworthiness evaluation.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Productivity

If a heuristic is used to generate the electronic horizon, then computational effort and runtime are reduced, but accuracy and reliability of the prediction decrease

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvecomputational efficiencyVSAvoidprediction accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The patent combines multiple heuristics (vehicle history heuristic, external history heuristic, route parameter heuristic, driver behavior heuristic) into a unified electronic horizon prediction system. By merging multiple simple heuristics rather than using a single complex algorithm, the system maintains low computational effort while significantly improving prediction accuracy and reliability through probability analysis.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #5Merging (Combining)

2Reliability

If multiple heuristics are combined to improve accuracy, then reliability increases, but device complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveforecast trustworthinessVSAvoidsystem complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent segments the electronic horizon prediction into multiple independent heuristics, each handling a specific aspect (vehicle history, external history, route parameters, driver behavior). This segmentation allows each heuristic to remain simple and computationally efficient while their combination through probability analysis achieves high overall reliability without requiring complex integrated algorithms.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The patent changes the parameter of combining multiple heuristics by using probability analysis and evidence theory to evaluate and integrate their results. This approach transforms the complexity management from algorithmic integration to statistical parameter evaluation, maintaining system simplicity while achieving high reliability through mathematical combination of independent probability assessments.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

3Reliability

If probability analysis is performed to evaluate heuristic accuracy, then reliability of the electronic horizon increases, but computational effort increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction reliabilityVSAvoidcomputational energy
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSUse of energy by moving object

Solution Approach 1:

The patent replaces complex mechanical or algorithmic integration methods with probability analysis and evidence theory to combine heuristic results. This substitution uses mathematical probability calculations instead of complex computational algorithms, achieving high reliability through statistically efficient methods that require less computational energy than traditional multi-heuristic integration approaches.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

Data Source

PatentEP2459968B1Electronic horizon for a driver assistance system
Publication Date: 2018.01.03 ROBERT BOSCH GMBH
  • EP2459968B1 patent drawingFigure 1

AI summary

The invention relates to a method and a device for providing an electronic horizon for a driver assistance system of a vehicle, wherein the current position of the motor vehicle is determined and the electronic horizon is created by means of a heuristic on the basis of map information of the street network in the surrounding areas of the current position of the motor vehicle. In so doing, a probability consideration of the heuristic is carried out and an accuracy probability of the heuristic is determined.