Energy Consumption Prediction via Data Decomposition
Find Innovative SolutionsGenerate Solutions
Solution Overview
Problem
Current methods for predicting energy consumption in buildings are not precise and do not allow real-time monitoring, as they rely on limited historical data and complex patterns, often requiring long training times and retrospective analysis.
Innovation Solution
A system and method that utilize granular-level consumption data decomposition into different training sets for various types of days, followed by regression analysis to train a prediction function, enabling precise estimation of energy consumption and real-time monitoring.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If statistical data regression or neural networks are used to predict energy consumption, then prediction capability is provided, but prediction precision is insufficient and training time is very long
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the energy consumption time series into multiple components (trend component, seasonal component, and residual component) using decomposition facilities. This segmentation allows the prediction function to be trained on simpler, decomposed data rather than complex raw data, significantly reducing training time while improving prediction precision. The trend component captures long-term patterns, the seasonal component captures periodic variations, and the residual component captures random fluctuations, enabling more efficient and accurate prediction.
2Measurement precision
If retrospective analysis of monthly consumption data is performed, then energy consumption prediction is achieved, but real-time monitoring capability is not provided
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary decomposition of the energy consumption data into trend and seasonal components before prediction. This preliminary action transforms the raw data into a format that enables both accurate retrospective analysis and real-time forecasting. By pre-processing the data to separate systematic patterns from random variations, the system can quickly generate real-time predictions without performing complex analysis at prediction time, thus providing both accuracy and real-time capability.
3Device complexity
If limited historical consumption data is used for training, then system complexity is reduced, but prediction precision is insufficient
Solution Approach 1:
The patent changes the parameters of the training data by transforming raw energy consumption data into decomposed components (trend and seasonal). This parameter transformation allows the use of limited historical data more effectively - instead of trying to extract all patterns from raw data, the system trains on specifically transformed parameters that capture the essential behavior. This reduces the amount of historical data needed while improving prediction precision, as the decomposed parameters provide clearer signals for training the prediction function.
Data Source
AI summary
According to one embodiment of the present invention, a prediction system is provided. The system comprises a first data decomposition facility configured to decompose a provided time series of consumption data into a plurality of different training sets for different types of days and a second data decomposition facility configured to decompose each one of the plurality of training sets into at least a seasonal component and a trend component. The system further comprises a regression facility configured to perform a regression analysis on the decomposed consumption data based on at least the trend component and chronological information associated with the consumption data of the respective training set to train a prediction function and a prediction facility configured to estimate predicted energy consumption data based on the trained prediction function and the type of a day for which the prediction is performed.According to further embodiment, a method for predicting energy consumption data based on a time series of consumption data and a cloud-based prediction platform are disclosed.


