Energy Supply Planning With Base Load Model Correction
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing energy supply plan formulation systems fail to accurately account for changes in equipment characteristics due to configuration changes or performance degradation, leading to errors in load forecasting and inefficient energy resource exploitation.
Innovation Solution
An energy supply plan formulation device that includes an acquisition unit to detect changes in base load, a determination unit to assess the need for model corrections, a correction unit to update equipment and load models, and a supply plan formulation unit to create an energy supply plan based on these models, ensuring accurate forecasting.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If equipment model correction is not performed, then device complexity is reduced, but forecast accuracy deteriorates due to equipment characteristic changes
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary detection of equipment characteristic changes by monitoring base load variations before they significantly impact forecast accuracy. The acquisition unit continuously acquires base load data, and the determination unit proactively identifies when corrections are needed, allowing the system to maintain accuracy without constant full-scale model corrections.
Solution Approach 2:
The system establishes a feedback loop where the determination unit monitors equipment characteristic changes, triggers corrections when thresholds are exceeded, and updates the equipment model accordingly. This feedback mechanism ensures forecast accuracy is maintained by continuously adjusting the model based on actual equipment performance deviations.
2Measurement precision
If base load change detection is implemented, then forecast accuracy is improved, but loss of time increases due to additional monitoring and correction processes
Solution Approach 1:
The system monitors changes in base load parameters to detect equipment characteristic variations. By focusing on specific parameter changes rather than comprehensive model re-evaluation, the system achieves improved forecast accuracy while minimizing the time required for detection and correction processes.
Solution Approach 2:
The determination unit automatically determines whether model correction is needed based on pre-set thresholds and criteria, eliminating the need for manual assessment. This self-service approach reduces time loss by automating the decision-making process for when corrections should be performed.
3Productivity
If equipment characteristic changes are not considered, then ease of operation is maintained, but energy resource exploitation efficiency deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The system uses feedback from base load monitoring to automatically adjust equipment models when characteristic changes are detected. This feedback mechanism improves energy resource exploitation efficiency by ensuring models reflect actual equipment performance, while the automation maintains ease of operation by eliminating manual intervention requirements.
Solution Approach 2:
The system performs self-correction of equipment models based on monitored base load changes, improving energy efficiency without requiring operator involvement. The determination unit and correction unit work autonomously to maintain model accuracy, preserving ease of operation while enhancing productivity.
Data Source
AI summary
It is intended to reduce errors related to an energy supply plan to be formulated. An energy supply plan formulation device includes an acquisition unit for acquiring a change of a base load of energy equipment, a determination unit for determining whether to need correction of at least one of an equipment model and a load model on the basis of the change of the base load, a correction unit for correcting at least one of the equipment model and the load model on the basis of a determination result, a demand forecasting unit for forecasting the amount of energy demand, and a supply plan formulation unit for formulating an energy supply plan on the basis of the equipment model and the amount of energy demand.