Event Handling Confidence Model for Digitalized Processes
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing digitalized processes face challenges in accurately predicting the completion time of events, leading to potential delays and inefficiencies due to uncertainties and noise in status indicators.
Innovation Solution
A method utilizing a status indicator confidence model to assess the accuracy of event completion predictions by analyzing event records and setting flags for events with low confidence scores, allowing for timely resource allocation and intervention.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If status indicators are used to predict event completion time, then productivity is improved, but measurement precision deteriorates due to noise and uncertainty
Solution Approach 1:
The system implements feedback by comparing actual event completion times with predicted times from status indicators, using this information to continuously improve future predictions through the confidence model and flagging mechanism
Solution Approach 2:
A confidence model is introduced as an intermediary between the status indicator and the event completion prediction, assessing the reliability of status indicators and providing a confidence score to filter out noisy predictions
2Loss of time
If resource allocation is optimized based on event predictions, then loss of time is reduced, but reliability deteriorates due to uncertain predictions
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by identifying events that are likely to be delayed using the confidence model and flagging mechanism, allowing proactive resource allocation and intervention before actual delays occur
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes the parameter of prediction reliability assessment by introducing confidence scores that quantify the uncertainty of predictions, enabling more reliable decision-making for resource allocation
Data Source
AI summary
There is provided a method of handling events for digitalised processes. The method comprises: obtaining a first event record, the first event record being linked to a first digitalised process and comprising: a first expected time of a first event occurring, and a first status indicator indicative of the likelihood of the first event occurring at the first expected time. The method then further comprises: inputting the first event record into a status indicator confidence model; receiving a first confidence score from the status indicator confidence model for the first status indicator; and, if the first confidence score is below a predetermined threshold, setting a flag for the first event record.