Failure Detection System Risk Quantification

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing failure detection systems lack a method to quantify and demonstrate the risk reduction of failure modes reaching failure limits, making it difficult to justify the effectiveness of new systems compared to previous ones.

Innovation Solution

A computer-implemented system determines the probability of failure modes reaching failure limits and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies over time, quantifying risk reduction by analyzing failure signatures and modes using probability density functions and effectiveness scores.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Reliability

If a failure detection system is implemented to identify failure signatures and prevent failure modes, then system reliability is improved, but it becomes difficult to quantify and demonstrate the actual risk reduction achieved

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvesystem reliabilityVSAvoidlack of quantifiable risk reduction data

Core Design Contradiction:

ReliabilityVSLoss of information

Solution Approach 1:

The patent implements a feedback mechanism by calculating and providing quantitative risk reduction metrics that feed back into the evaluation of FDS effectiveness. The system computes probability of failure mode reaching failure limit, probability of mitigation, and overall risk reduction fraction, creating a closed-loop information system that demonstrates actual performance improvement.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #23Feedback

Solution Approach 2:

The patent introduces mathematical models and calculation algorithms as intermediaries between the FDS and the effectiveness evaluation. These intermediaries (probability density functions, effectiveness scores, risk reduction fraction calculations) translate the complex system behavior into quantifiable metrics that can clearly demonstrate risk reduction.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

2Reliability

If the effectiveness of failure detection systems cannot be quantified, then it is difficult to justify the costs of new systems compared to previous ones

Engineering Contradiction:

Improvefailure detection effectivenessVSAvoidcost justification difficulty

Core Design Contradiction:

ReliabilityVSEase of manufacture

Solution Approach 1:

The patent changes the evaluation parameters from qualitative assessments to quantitative metrics. By introducing specific parameters such as probability of failure mode reaching failure limit, probability of mitigation, and risk reduction fraction, the system enables objective cost-effectiveness comparisons between different FDS implementations.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #35Parameter changes

3Loss of information

If probability density functions and effectiveness scores are used to quantify risk reduction, then clear demonstration of risk reduction is achieved, but the system complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:

Improverisk reduction quantificationVSAvoidanalysis system complexity

Core Design Contradiction:

Loss of informationVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent segments the complex risk assessment into distinct computational components: (1) determining probability of failure mode reaching failure limit using probability density functions, (2) determining probability of mitigation, and (3) calculating risk reduction fraction. This segmentation makes the complex analysis more manageable and implementable.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #1Segmentation

Data Source

PatentUS8214317B2Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

Publication Date: 2012.07.03 AEROJET ROCKETDYNE OF DE INC

AI summary

A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.