Failure Probability Evaluation System Maintenance Correction
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current methods for estimating the lifespan of machine system components fail to accurately account for the varying effects of different maintenance schemes and operator skills, leading to a large dispersion in failure probability functions and inaccurate lifespan estimation.
Innovation Solution
A failure probability evaluation system that corrects cumulative operation time and load by considering the type of maintenance, including maintenance schemes and their effects, to generate an equivalent cumulative operation time period, thereby refining the failure probability function.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If statistical analysis is performed without considering maintenance effects, then the analysis process is simple, but the failure probability function has large dispersion and lifespan estimation accuracy is poor
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary action by pre-defining maintenance effect parameters and correction coefficients for different maintenance types before performing the statistical analysis. This allows the maintenance effects to be systematically incorporated into the failure probability calculation without complicating the overall analysis workflow, thereby improving lifespan estimation accuracy while maintaining process simplicity.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent changes parameters by introducing maintenance effect parameters and correction coefficients that adjust the cumulative operation time based on maintenance types. This parameter modification approach enables the statistical analysis to account for maintenance effects systematically, improving the accuracy of failure probability functions and lifespan estimates without fundamentally changing the analysis methodology.
2Adaptability or versatility
If multiple maintenance schemes are applied to a single item, then the maintenance flexibility is improved, but the dispersion degree of the failure probability function increases and estimation accuracy deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies segmentation by dividing the maintenance history into discrete maintenance events, each characterized by specific maintenance types and effect parameters. This segmentation allows the statistical analysis to process each maintenance event individually with appropriate correction coefficients, thereby maintaining the flexibility to apply multiple maintenance schemes while reducing the dispersion in failure probability estimates through systematic handling of each maintenance type.
Data Source
AI summary
The problem of the present invention is how to identify a failure probability function that defines failure occurrences of a device or a component of the device that is operated while undergoing maintenance in consideration of effects of the maintenance. A failure probability evaluation system deals with a device or a component of the device that undergoes maintenance (hereinafter, referred to as an item), and the failure probability evaluation system includes: a failure probability function identification unit 12 for calculating the failure probability function of the item on the basis of survival data represented as a relationship between a cumulative operation time period and a failure state; and a maintenance effect correction unit 9 for correcting the cumulative operation time period in the survival data on the basis of a maintenance effect parameter that defines a damage recovery effect or a damage accumulation suppression effect for the item brought about by maintenance, wherein the failure probability function identification unit 12 includes an optimization function for optimizing the maintenance effect parameter so as to reduce a dispersion degree index of the failure probability function.