Fatigue Life Estimation Using Probabilistic Damage Accumulation
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Solution Overview
Problem
Technical systems, such as gas-turbine components and motors, face limitations in service life due to cyclic loads leading to fatigue, with material property scatter causing variations in crack initiation times, particularly affecting thermal barrier coatings on turbine blades.
Innovation Solution
A method and device for estimating fatigue life by computing lifing probability distributions based on material property scatter data and damage scenarios, combining time-damage and spatial-damage accumulation rules, and simulating damage scenarios to determine integral damage and probability of fatigue failure using the law of total probability.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If material property scatter is considered in fatigue life estimation, then prediction accuracy is improved, but computational complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the fatigue life estimation process into distinct modules: damage scenario identification, material property scatter analysis, damage accumulation calculation (both temporal and spatial), and probability computation. This modular segmentation allows each aspect to be handled separately, improving prediction accuracy through comprehensive consideration of scatter effects while managing computational complexity through structured processing steps.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces a probabilistic dimension to traditional deterministic fatigue life estimation by incorporating material property scatter data. This transforms the estimation from a single-value prediction to a probability distribution, adding the dimension of uncertainty quantification. The method also integrates spatial distribution of damage across multiple regions, moving from point-wise to field-based analysis, thereby improving accuracy without proportionally increasing complexity through efficient numerical methods.
2Measurement precision
If multiple damage scenarios and material property scatter data are integrated, then fatigue life estimation accuracy is improved, but data processing requirements increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent merges multiple damage scenarios and material property scatter data into a unified probabilistic framework. By combining temporal damage accumulation (over time/cycles) with spatial damage distribution (across component regions) and material property variations, the method creates an integrated assessment model. This merging approach improves estimation accuracy by considering all sources of uncertainty simultaneously while managing data volume through efficient integration algorithms that process multiple datasets in a coordinated manner.
3Reliability
If spatial-damage accumulation across multiple regions is calculated, then prediction reliability is improved, but computational time increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the component into multiple discrete regions for spatial damage analysis, allowing parallel processing of damage accumulation calculations across different zones. By dividing the spatial domain into manageable segments, the method improves prediction reliability through comprehensive spatial coverage while reducing computational time through parallelization opportunities and efficient numerical integration techniques applied to each segment independently.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent performs preliminary identification of critical regions and damage scenarios before executing full spatial damage accumulation calculations. By pre-processing to identify high-risk areas and dominant damage mechanisms, the method focuses computational resources on the most influential regions, thereby improving prediction reliability where it matters most while significantly reducing overall computational time by avoiding exhaustive calculation in low-risk areas.
Data Source
AI summary
A method, device, and system of estimation fatigue life of a technical system are disclosed. The method includes computing a lifing probability distribution for at least one component of the technical system based on material property scatter data and at least one damage scenario associated with the at least one component. Further, the method includes determining a time-damage accumulation for the at least one component by combining plurality of damage scenario and damage accumulation rules for the at least one component. Furthermore, the method includes determining a spatial-damage accumulation and a cumulative time-damage accumulation for each of a plurality of regions in the at least one component. The method also includes determining an integral damage including integral of the spatial-damage accumulation and the cumulative time-damage accumulation for the at least one component based on simulation of the at least one damage scenario and conditional probabilities for the at least one damage scenario. The fatigue life of the technical system is estimated by determining a probability of fatigue failure of the technical system by combining the integral damage and predicted damage scenarios for a plurality of components in the technical system based on the law of total probability.