Trajectory Prediction Using Fictitious Impact Points
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current anti-aircraft defense systems face uncertainty in predicting the target of hostile aircraft, which can lead to ineffective defense actions due to high levels of uncertainty in trajectory prediction.
Innovation Solution
A method that predicts the trajectory of a hostile aircraft by extrapolating a trajectory from a fictitious point of impact, considering the heading angle and distance to the predicted target, and adapts to different types of aircraft and existing systems, reducing curvature to improve interception chances.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If current trajectory prediction methods are used, then the system can identify potential targets, but the prediction accuracy remains uncertain leading to ineffective defense actions
Solution Approach 1:
The method performs preliminary actions by defining a fictitious impact point before the actual intercept occurs. This fictitious point is calculated based on predicted trajectory parameters, allowing the defense system to prepare interception calculations in advance with reduced uncertainty, thereby improving both prediction accuracy and defense reliability
Solution Approach 2:
The fictitious impact point serves as an intermediary element between the predicted trajectory and the actual intercept point. By using this intermediate reference point, the system can perform more accurate trajectory extrapolation and improve the reliability of defense actions without directly dealing with the uncertainty of the final intercept location
2Measurement precision
If the predicted trajectory connects to the actual target point, then the trajectory reflects the true intent, but the curvature is high making interception difficult
Solution Approach 1:
The method extracts the essential directional information from the high-curvature trajectory by defining a fictitious impact point that lies on the extrapolated trajectory. This allows the system to separate the target identification function (which needs accurate direction) from the interception calculation function (which benefits from reduced curvature), thereby maintaining target identification accuracy while simplifying the trajectory for interception purposes
3Adaptability or versatility
If the system adapts to different aircraft types and existing systems, then versatility is improved, but the prediction method becomes more complex
Solution Approach 1:
The method achieves universality by defining a general framework using fictitious impact points that can be applied to different aircraft types and integrated with existing defense systems. The core algorithm remains the same regardless of the specific aircraft or system being used, providing versatility without proportionally increasing complexity
Solution Approach 2:
The system adapts to different aircraft types by adjusting trajectory parameters (such as speed, heading angle, and acceleration) while maintaining the same fundamental prediction methodology. This allows the system to handle various aircraft configurations without requiring fundamentally different prediction algorithms, thereby achieving adaptability with controlled complexity
Data Source
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AI summary
The invention relates to a method for predicting the trajectory of a hostile aircraft. The method comprises a first step (1) of predicting a target point aimed at by an aircraft, a second step (2) of determining a fictitious impact point based on the predicted target point, and a third step (3) of determining a trajectory ending at the fictitious impact point. Application: Naval anti-aircraft defense.