Flight Trajectory Prediction Using Environmental Data and Pseudo-Waypoints
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current aircraft trajectory predictors lack accuracy due to reliance on outdated or incomplete data, failure to incorporate current environmental conditions, and lack of pseudo-waypoints, leading to inadequate flight trajectory predictions.
Innovation Solution
A system that generates predicted flight trajectories using a combination of aircraft state data, flight information, and environmental information, including pseudo-waypoints, with adaptive output fidelity and confidence levels, based on user configuration and real-time data, without relying on specific aircraft performance databases.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If current environmental information and forecasted environmental conditions are incorporated into trajectory prediction, then prediction accuracy is improved, but data processing complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system segments environmental data into distinct types (current environmental information from aircraft messages and forecasted environmental conditions) and processes them through separate computational pathways before integration. This segmentation allows the complex data processing to be organized into manageable modules, improving accuracy while controlling complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The system performs preliminary processing of environmental data by extracting relevant parameters from aircraft messages and pre-processing forecasted conditions before they are integrated into trajectory calculations. This preliminary action prepares the data in advance, reducing the computational burden during real-time prediction and managing processing complexity.
2Measurement precision
If pseudo-waypoints are added to complete the flight plan, then trajectory accuracy is improved, but computational workload increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system applies partial action by adding pseudo-waypoints only at critical transition points in the flight plan where gradual changes occur, rather than throughout the entire trajectory. This selective approach improves trajectory accuracy at key locations while minimizing the overall computational workload compared to adding pseudo-waypoints everywhere.
3Adaptability or versatility
If multiple trajectories are generated with varying fidelity levels, then user requirements are better met, but system complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system implements dynamic output generation where the fidelity and detail of trajectory predictions are adjusted based on user requirements and data availability. The system can dynamically produce multiple trajectories with varying levels of detail, allowing adaptable output for different users while managing system complexity through conditional logic rather than permanent multi-structure overhead.
4Loss of information
If aircraft messaging and historical data are utilized, then situational awareness is improved, but communication burden increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system extracts only the essential environmental information and historical data elements needed for accurate trajectory prediction from aircraft messages, rather than processing all available data. This selective extraction improves situational awareness by capturing key information while minimizing communication burden by reducing the volume of data that needs to be transmitted and processed.
Data Source
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AI summary
Systems and methods for generating a predicted flight trajectory using a combination of aircraft state data, flight information, environmental information, historical data or derived flight information from aircraft messaging which can be used for the transmission of environmental data. The generated trajectory prediction is assigned a level of confidence based on fidelity, merit or accuracy. The level of predicted accuracy is based on the number of and sources of the specific information, time, distance or flight phase. The predicted trajectory includes pseudo-waypoints at flight transitions not readily available in the flight information and also includes the environmental conditions at all waypoint (including pseudo-waypoint) locations.