Forecasting Models for Constrained Emissions Optimization
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing systems fail to effectively plan and optimize emissions control to achieve net zero emissions by a planned date due to uncertainty in future operations and lack of consideration for uncertain variables, leading to inefficient and costly approaches.
Innovation Solution
A computer-implemented method using forecasting models to classify operational data into certain and uncertain variables, generating long-term emissions optimization plans and short-term emissions control policies, and initiating optimization actions based on these plans.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If manual planning by domain experts is used, then specialized knowledge is applied, but the plans become error-prone and cannot consider all relevant data
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces forecasting models and optimization algorithms as intermediary systems between raw operational data and emissions planning decisions. These models process and analyze data, providing optimized recommendations that reduce human error while maintaining the benefit of domain expertise through model design and interpretation
Solution Approach 2:
The patent replaces manual mechanical planning processes with automated computational systems. Optimization algorithms and forecasting models substitute for manual analysis, enabling the system to consider all relevant data without human limitations while maintaining reliability through rigorous mathematical frameworks
2Reliability
If traditional emissions planning is used, then simplicity is maintained, but uncertainty in future operations is not considered
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies preliminary action by using forecasting models to predict future operational conditions and emissions scenarios before finalizing the emissions optimization plan. This allows the system to account for uncertainty in advance and prepare optimized strategies that are robust to future variations
Solution Approach 2:
The patent introduces dynamics by creating adaptive emissions optimization plans that can respond to changing conditions. The system uses forecasting models to continuously update predictions and adjusts optimization strategies based on predicted uncertainties, making the planning process dynamic rather than static
3Measurement precision
If comprehensive data analysis is performed, then optimization accuracy is improved, but computational requirements and time increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies segmentation by dividing the comprehensive data analysis into distinct processing stages: data collection, forecasting model generation, optimization model application, and plan development. This segmented approach allows parallel processing of different data types and reduces overall computational time while maintaining precision
Solution Approach 2:
The patent uses preliminary action by pre-processing operational data and generating forecasting models before applying optimization algorithms. This preliminary preparation of data and models reduces the computational burden during the actual optimization phase, decreasing planning time while preserving measurement precision
Data Source
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AI summary
Embodiments described herein relate to constrained emissions control, optimization, and planning. An example method may include receiving operational data associated with one or more assets. The method may include classifying the operational data as first variables and second variables. The method may include generating, based at least in part on the operational data, one or more forecasting models that provide one or more predictions associated with uncertainty of the second variables. The method may include generating, based at least in part on applying the operational data and the one or more predictions to an optimization model, a long-term emissions optimization plan. The method may include generating, based at least in part on the long-term emissions optimization plan, a short-term emissions control. The method may include initiating performance of one or more emissions optimization actions based at least in part on the long-term emissions optimization plan or the short-term emissions control.