Real-Time Fracturing Risk Assessment via Seismic Monitoring
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Solution Overview
Problem
The rapid expansion of hydraulic fracturing in shale gas and geothermal exploitation has led to increased risks of induced earthquakes and casing deformations, resulting in significant economic and social impacts. Existing methods lack the capability to assess these risks in real-time and optimize hydraulic-fracturing engineering parameters effectively.
Innovation Solution
A method and system for assessing potential disaster risks in real-time by obtaining and analyzing earthquake and production data. This involves near-field monitoring, data processing to infer fracture and fault distributions, and using multi-field coupled numerical models to determine risk thresholds and optimize hydraulic-fracturing parameters.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If hydraulic fracturing scale is rapidly increased, then productivity is improved, but earthquake risk and casing deformation risk increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary risk assessment before and during hydraulic fracturing operations by establishing a physical prediction model that calculates induced earthquake risk based on probability distribution. This allows proactive identification of high-risk scenarios before they materialize, enabling preventive adjustments to fracturing parameters to maintain both high productivity and safety
Solution Approach 2:
The system implements real-time monitoring and feedback mechanisms that continuously track fracturing parameters, seismic activity, and casing deformation. The feedback loop allows dynamic adjustment of fracturing operations based on observed conditions, enabling the system to maintain optimal productivity while responding to emerging risks through parameter optimization
2Object-affected harmful factors
If real-time monitoring and assessment systems are implemented, then disaster risk reduction is improved, but device complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system integrates multiple functions into a unified platform that simultaneously performs data acquisition, real-time monitoring, risk assessment, and parameter optimization. By making the system multi-functional, it reduces the need for separate specialized systems, thereby managing complexity while comprehensively addressing earthquake and casing deformation risks through integrated operations
Data Source
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AI summary
Disclosed are a method and system for assessing a potential disaster risk in real time to optimize hydraulic-fracturing engineering parameters, which relate to the field of shale gas exploitation. The method includes: obtaining earthquake data in a process of shale gas exploitation in a target region in real time by means of near-field monitoring; locating each earthquake event according to the earthquake data; obtaining production factor data of a construction unit in the process of shale gas exploitation in the target region and casing deformation data occurring in a process of single well fracturing in real time; screening earthquake events satisfying a set condition on the basis of a space-time relation fitter; calculating linear correlation coefficients, nonlinear correlation coefficients and regression coefficients of each of the production factor data; calculating importance weights of each of the production factor data; determining a main production control factor; determining a risk threshold on the basis of a multi-field coupled numerical model; and assessing a potential earthquake risk in real time on the basis of the risk threshold of the main production control factor. The present disclosure can reduce a potential risk of an earthquake and a casing deformation in the process of shale gas exploitation.