County-Level Natural Gas Consumption Regression Modeling

Resolve Bottlenecks,
Find Innovative Solutions
Generate Solutions

Solution Overview

Problem

Current technologies face challenges in accurately predicting and modeling the flows of commodities like natural gas and electricity at a granular level, such as county-level consumption, due to limitations in data resolution and timeliness.

Innovation Solution

The implementation of a method that uses regression analysis with geographical characteristics, such as population and income levels, to calculate county-level natural gas consumption, and a high-performance computing system to process and predict commodity flows, including electricity, by attributing node-level data to counties and calculating distribution factors.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If regression analysis with geographical characteristics is used to calculate county-level natural gas consumption, then measurement precision of commodity flows is improved, but device complexity of the processing system increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvecounty-level consumption prediction accuracyVSAvoidprocessing system complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent introduces regression models as intermediary computational tools that bridge raw geographical data (population, income, employment) and commodity consumption estimates. These models act as mediators that transform readily available census and economic data into precise consumption predictions without requiring direct measurement infrastructure at the county level.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces physical measurement infrastructure (mechanical metering and counting systems) with computational regression models. Instead of installing physical sensors and meters at every county, the system uses statistical models that compute consumption from economic and demographic variables, significantly reducing physical system complexity while maintaining measurement precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

2Productivity

If high-performance computing systems are used to process and predict commodity flows, then productivity of data processing is improved, but device complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvedata processing speedVSAvoidcomputing system complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent segments the commodity flow prediction problem into multiple independent regression models, each handling specific commodity types (natural gas, electricity, petroleum) and geographic regions. This segmentation allows parallel processing on high-performance computing systems, dramatically improving productivity while keeping individual model complexities manageable and modular.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The patent transforms the computational problem by changing parameters from direct physical measurement to statistical estimation using economic indicators. This parameter transformation enables the use of standard high-performance computing resources for regression analysis rather than requiring specialized measurement infrastructure, improving productivity while controlling system complexity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

3Measurement precision

If node-level electrical load and generation capacity data are aggregated to county-level, then measurement precision of electrical flows is improved, but loss of time in data processing increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvecounty-level electrical flow accuracyVSAvoiddata aggregation time
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The patent performs preliminary aggregation of node-level electrical data to county-level totals before applying regression models. By pre-computing the sum of electrical loads and generation capacities for all nodes within each county, the system reduces the dimensionality of the problem and prepares data in advance for faster regression analysis, thereby reducing overall processing time while maintaining precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Data Source

PatentUS12315021B1Systems and methods for supply chain data processing and flow modeling
Publication Date: 2025.05.27 ARIZONA BOARD OF REGENTS ACTING FOR & ON BEHALF OF NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIV
  • US12315021B1 patent drawing
  • US12315021B1 patent drawing
  • US12315021B1 patent drawing

AI summary

Implementations of a method of calculating a county-level consumption of natural gas may include providing county-level natural gas production data for a plurality of counties to a database from a data repository; removing from an analysis, using a processor, all areas of a first county of the plurality of counties that do not include a natural gas utility; and using the processor, the database, and the county-level natural gas production data, executing a regression with at least two geographical characteristics of the first county to determine a natural gas consumption within the first county. The method may also include using the processor, repeating for each county of the plurality of counties to determine the natural gas consumption for each of the plurality of counties.