Gas Container Replacement Timing via Dynamic Usage Trend Forecasting
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Solution Overview
Problem
Conventional gas remaining amount management systems fail to accurately reflect the gas use trend of a consumer's place, leading to inaccuracies in managing the remaining gas amount.
Innovation Solution
A gas remaining amount management system that includes a flow rate measurer, an indicator value calculator, a determiner, and a remaining amount calculator to dynamically determine a reference period based on the comparison between an indicator value and a threshold, using past data to calculate the gas remaining amount with high accuracy.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If a fixed reference period is used to calculate gas remaining amount, then the calculation process is simple, but the accuracy of gas consumption trend reflection is insufficient
Solution Approach 1:
The reference period is made dynamic rather than fixed. The determiner dynamically adjusts the reference period based on comparing indicator values (gas consumption trends) against thresholds. When consumption patterns are stable, a longer reference period is used; when changes are detected, the period is adjusted accordingly. This dynamic adaptation resolves the contradiction by maintaining high accuracy through flexible period selection while keeping the system relatively simple through automated threshold-based control.
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes the parameter of reference period length based on gas consumption characteristics. By monitoring indicator values that reflect consumption trends and comparing them to thresholds, the system automatically adjusts the reference period parameter to optimize prediction accuracy. This parameter change approach allows the system to adapt to varying consumption patterns without requiring complex manual configuration.
2Reliability
If a long reference period is used, then more past data is included for averaging, but the most recent consumption changes are difficult to capture
Solution Approach 1:
The reference period dynamically adapts its length based on detected consumption patterns. When the system detects stable consumption patterns through indicator value comparisons, it extends the reference period to improve reliability through more data averaging. When recent changes are detected, the reference period is shortened to capture these changes accurately. This dynamic adjustment resolves the contradiction between stability and responsiveness.
Solution Approach 2:
The system uses feedback from indicator value comparisons to adjust the reference period. The determiner continuously monitors gas consumption trends, compares indicator values against thresholds, and uses this feedback to automatically adjust the reference period length. This feedback mechanism ensures the system maintains optimal balance between capturing recent changes and providing stable trend analysis.
3Measurement precision
If a short reference period is used, then recent consumption changes are captured quickly, but the prediction becomes sensitive to sudden changes and less accurate
Solution Approach 1:
The reference period is dynamically adjusted based on the stability of consumption patterns. When consumption is stable, the system uses a longer reference period for reliable averaging. When changes are detected, it transitions to a shorter period to capture new trends while maintaining stability through threshold-based control. This dynamic behavior resolves the contradiction between responsiveness and stability.
Solution Approach 2:
The system changes the reference period parameter based on detected consumption characteristics. By monitoring indicator values and comparing them to thresholds, the system automatically adjusts the reference period length to optimize both responsiveness to changes and stability of predictions. This parameter adaptation resolves the trade-off between capturing recent changes and maintaining prediction reliability.
Data Source
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AI summary
A gas remaining amount management system includes: a flow rate measurer that measures a flow rate of a gas flowing to a gas appliance from a gas container located at a consumer's place or at each of a plurality of consumer's places; an indicator value calculator that calculates an indicator value indicating a gas consumption trend at the consumer's place; a determiner that determines as a reference period a period including past data to be referenced, based on a comparison between the indicator value and a threshold, the past data indicating past gas consumption; a remaining amount calculator that calculates a gas remaining amount in the gas container after a first predetermined period using the past data in the reference period; and an informer that informs of a replacement timing of the gas container based on the gas remaining amount.