Generative Models for Synthetic RCT Subjects
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Solution Overview
Problem
Conducting Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) is expensive, time-consuming, and sometimes unethical due to the need for large numbers of human subjects, and existing methods for reducing subject numbers, such as historical borrowing, can be flawed if the trial population differs from historical data.
Innovation Solution
The use of generative models to create 'digital subjects' that match the trial population's statistics, allowing for the generation of predicted panel data to supplement control arm data and estimate treatment effects, thereby reducing the number of human subjects required and improving statistical power.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Loss of time
If the number of human subjects in RCT is reduced, then cost and time are reduced, but statistical power and accuracy of treatment effect determination deteriorate
Solution Approach 1:
The patent creates digital twins (synthetic subjects) that copy and replicate the characteristics, outcomes, and responses of human subjects in the RCT. These digital twins are generated using machine learning models trained on trial data and can be repeatedly simulated to provide additional statistical power without enrolling more human participants, thus resolving the contradiction between reducing time/cost and maintaining accuracy.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent adds a digital/synthetic dimension to the traditional physical human subjects in RCTs. By creating a parallel digital representation layer that mirrors human subject characteristics and responses, the system effectively doubles the sample size without increasing physical subject recruitment, thereby maintaining statistical power while reducing time and cost.
2Quantity of substance
If historical data is used to supplement trial data, then subject numbers are reduced, but accuracy deteriorates when trial population differs from historical data
Solution Approach 1:
The patent dynamically adjusts the characteristics and parameters of digital twins based on the specific trial population being studied. The machine learning models are retrained or fine-tuned for each trial, and digital twin characteristics are adjusted to match the actual trial demographics, ensuring accuracy is maintained while still reducing the number of human subjects needed.
Solution Approach 2:
The system creates a dynamic adaptation mechanism where digital twins are continuously adjusted and refined to match the specific characteristics of each trial population. This dynamic process ensures that the synthetic subjects accurately represent the current trial demographics rather than relying on static historical data, thereby maintaining accuracy while reducing subject numbers.
Data Source
AI summary
Systems and methods for determining treatment effects of a randomized control trial (RCT) in accordance with embodiments of the invention are illustrated. One embodiment includes a method for determining treatment effects. The method includes steps for receiving data from a RCT, generating result data using a set of one or more generative models, and determining treatment effects for the RCT using the generated result data.


