GIS-Based Population Estimation for Nuclear Severe Accidents
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for population and contamination estimation during severe accidents in nuclear power plants are cumbersome, requiring significant manpower and prone to calculation errors, especially when dealing with larger sectors or increased administrative regions.
Innovation Solution
A method and device utilizing geographic information system (GIS) data to model a polar coordinate radiation grid and estimate population by calculating sector data using a divide-and-conquer approach, incorporating economic factors and weight values for accurate predictions.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If manual calculation methods are used for population and land fraction estimation in each sector, then calculation accuracy can be maintained through direct operator calculation, but significant manpower is required and work fatigue increases especially when sectors become larger or increased
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces manual mechanical calculation operations with an automated computer-based system that processes GIS data. The system automatically calculates population and land fraction for each sector by integrating administrative region data with sector geometry, eliminating the need for operators to perform repetitive manual calculations while maintaining accuracy through systematic computational methods.
Solution Approach 2:
The system enables self-service by automatically performing all population and land fraction estimation calculations without requiring operator intervention for each sector. The computer automatically processes the integration of administrative region boundaries with sector definitions, calculates areas, and computes population estimates independently, freeing operators from cumbersome manual work.
2Loss of information
If direct calculation of administrative region population is performed for each sector, then population data can be obtained for safety evaluation, but the process is cumbersome and requires significant manpower
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements a universal system that handles multiple functions simultaneously: it defines sectors based on polar coordinate grids, identifies administrative regions within each sector, calculates land fractions, estimates population, and outputs results for safety evaluation. This multi-functional approach consolidates what would otherwise require separate manual processes into a single automated system.
Solution Approach 2:
The system segments the complex estimation process into distinct computational steps: sector definition using polar coordinates, administrative region identification through GIS data integration, land fraction calculation by area ratio computation, and population estimation by applying population density to land areas. This segmentation allows each step to be processed automatically while maintaining data completeness.
3Reliability
If the number of sectors is increased to improve safety evaluation coverage, then more comprehensive population estimation is achieved, but the number of administrative regions to be calculated increases leading to higher work fatigue
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces manual operational processes with automated computer-based calculations that can handle any number of sectors without increasing operator workload. The system automatically processes each sector's population and land fraction calculations, allowing comprehensive safety evaluation coverage to be achieved simply by increasing the number of sectors in the polar grid without burdening operators with additional manual work.
Data Source
AI summary
Disclosed is a population and contamination estimation method for severe accidents in nuclear power plants. The population estimation method performed by a population estimation device according to an embodiment may include storing location information of a nuclear power plant on a map and predicting a multi-unit accident occurrence point based on information on a plurality of single units associated with the nuclear power plant stored on the map.