Navigation Guidance Device Arrival Time Error Range Calculation
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing navigation systems often provide inaccurate predicted arrival times due to undifferentiated traffic information, leading to significant differences between expected and actual arrival times, causing driver unease despite displaying error margins.
Innovation Solution
A guidance device and method that calculate and display prediction error ranges for multiple recommended routes, allowing users to choose between routes based on desired arrival times, with dynamic recalculations and collective intelligence data to improve accuracy.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Loss of information
If a predicted arrival time with error margin is provided, then the driver is informed of possible variation, but the driver feels unease due to significant difference between expected and actual arrival times
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the arrival time prediction into multiple discrete time slots rather than providing a single continuous estimate. The travel time is divided into several possible arrival time ranges (e.g., 10:00-10:10, 10:10-10:20, etc.), each with its own probability. This segmentation allows the system to present a more nuanced view of prediction uncertainty, reducing driver unease by showing that the actual arrival time is likely to fall within one of these segmented intervals rather than being significantly off from a single point estimate.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent implements dynamic recalculation of arrival time predictions based on real-time traffic information and actual vehicle progress. As the vehicle moves along the route and new traffic data becomes available, the system dynamically updates the predicted arrival time and adjusts the time slot probabilities. This dynamic adaptation maintains prediction accuracy throughout the journey, preventing the large discrepancies that cause driver unease.
2Adaptability or versatility
If multiple recommended routes with different arrival times are provided, then users can choose based on desired arrival time, but the system complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies local quality by providing different levels of route information based on user needs and situational context. Rather than presenting all possible routes with equal detail, the system identifies the most suitable route(s) for the current situation and provides comprehensive information for those, while offering simplified information for alternatives. This selective detailed presentation maintains user flexibility while avoiding overwhelming system complexity.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent performs preliminary calculation and filtering of multiple routes before presenting them to the user. The system pre-calculates various possible routes, estimates their arrival times, and identifies the most promising options based on current conditions. This preliminary action reduces the complexity of real-time decision-making by pre-processing the route options, allowing the user to make informed choices without the system needing to maintain complex real-time calculations for all possible routes.
3Measurement precision
If error range of several minutes to tens of minutes is displayed, then the prediction uncertainty is communicated, but the useful information for driver decision-making is reduced
Solution Approach 1:
The patent adds a probability dimension to the arrival time prediction by distributing the prediction across multiple time slots with associated probabilities. Instead of simply displaying a wide error range (e.g., ±30 minutes), the system divides this range into discrete time slots (e.g., 10:00-10:10 with 60% probability, 10:10-10:20 with 30% probability, etc.). This dimensional transformation converts a lossy single-value estimate into a rich probability distribution, preserving useful information while communicating uncertainty in a more actionable format.
Data Source
Figure 1
Figure 2A~2F
Figure 3A
AI summary
The movement guidance device includes a first unit which calculates at least one of an error range of a first arrival time and a error range of a first movement time in a first routs to the destination, a second unit which calculates at least one of an error range of a second arrival time and a error range of a second movement time in a second route, which is a route to the destination and is different from the first route, at a point where the second route is branched, from the first route, and an output unit which outputs at least one of the error range of the second arrival' time and the error range of the second movement time calculated by the second unit based on whether the error range calculated by the second unit is smaller than the error range calculated by the first unit.