Heat source system managing device, heat source system managing method, and program
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing heat source systems face inefficiencies due to mismatched predicted and actual temperature forecasts, leading to insufficient cold heat supply when temperatures are higher than predicted, and wasted energy when temperatures are lower, resulting in decreased energy efficiency.
Innovation Solution
A heat source system managing device that calculates a predicted heat demand upper limit with a prediction error, prepares an operation plan to supply the upper limit, and adjusts the operation of heat source devices to utilize stored heat efficiently by changing the operation rate based on actual consumption.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If cold heat over the predicted heat demand value is generated by heat source equipment to supply to consuming facilities with a margin, then sufficient cold heat supply is ensured when actual temperature is higher than predicted, but when actual temperature is equal to or less than predicted value, a part of the cold heat becomes useless and energy efficiency decreases greatly
Solution Approach 1:
The operation rate of heat source devices is dynamically adjusted based on real-time stored heat quantity and predicted heat demand. The control device sequentially changes operation rates from first to second values, optimizing the balance between ensuring sufficient cold heat supply and minimizing energy waste according to actual temperature conditions.
Solution Approach 2:
The control device calculates stored heat quantity based on operation history and uses this feedback to determine optimal operation rates. The system continuously monitors the relationship between stored heat, predicted demand, and actual temperature deviations, adjusting operations accordingly to prevent both shortage and waste.
2Loss of energy
If the operation plan is prepared to properly satisfy a predicted heat demand value, then energy efficiency is improved by using stored cold heat, but when actual temperature is higher than predicted, sufficient cold heat may not be supplied to the load
Solution Approach 1:
The control device calculates a operation rate that may exceed the minimum required to satisfy predicted demand, generating additional cold heat to be stored. This excessive action ensures that when actual temperature deviates upward from predictions, sufficient cold heat is available while still maintaining energy efficiency through controlled generation.
Solution Approach 2:
The system performs preliminary calculation of stored heat quantity and predicts future heat demand to proactively adjust operation rates. By anticipating temperature deviations and calculating required stored heat in advance, the system prepares adequate cold heat reserves before actual demand occurs.
Applied Scientific Principles
This section explains which scientific principles are used to turn an abstract innovation direction into a practical engineering solution.
Function Achieved in This Case
This approach enhances energy efficiency by ensuring sufficient cold heat supply while minimizing energy waste, even when actual temperatures differ from predictions, by adjusting the operation of heat source devices to match demand and stored heat levels.
Implementation Method 1
a heat storage tank storing cold heat or hot heat generated by the one or more heat source devices
Data Source
AI summary
A heat source system managing device includes: a predicted heat demand upper limit calculating unit configured to calculate a predicted heat demand upper limit by adding a prediction error to a predicted heat demand value for a heat source system; an operation plan preparing unit configured to prepare an operation plan of the heat source system to supply heat of the predicted heat demand upper limit to a consuming facility; a surplus stored heat quantity calculating unit configured to repeatedly perform a process of calculating a surplus stored heat quantity by subtracting a heat quantity consumed by the consuming facility from the predicted heat demand upper limit; and an operation plan changing unit configured to sequentially change the operation plan by decreasing a future operation rate of a refrigerator to cancel the surplus stored heat quantity.