Facility Evacuation Prediction Using Historical Occupant Movements

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Solution Overview

Problem

Traditional emergency evacuation planning and training methods lack realism and fail to incorporate critical access control data, leading to inefficient evacuation routes and increased evacuation times, potentially risking lives.

Innovation Solution

A system that leverages access control data to model occupant behavior and generate evacuation routes, using AI to predict evacuation times and optimize routes based on historical movement patterns, with feedback from drills to enhance accuracy.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Reliability

If traditional static evacuation plans and live drills are used, then evacuation procedures can be established and trained, but the plans lack realism and do not incorporate access control data, resulting in suboptimal evacuation routes and longer evacuation times

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveevacuation plan accuracyVSAvoidevacuation time
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSLoss of time

Solution Approach 1:

The system performs preliminary analysis of historical access control data and occupancy patterns before emergencies occur to pre-determine optimized evacuation routes. This allows the system to have pre-calculated, data-driven evacuation paths ready when emergencies happen, eliminating the need for suboptimal static plans while reducing actual evacuation time.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The system continuously collects access control data and occupancy information during normal operations, analyzes this feedback to identify patterns, and uses this information to dynamically optimize evacuation routes. This feedback loop ensures evacuation plans remain accurate and up-to-date without requiring frequent disruptive live drills.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

2Reliability

If frequent live drills are conducted, then employee safety training is improved, but work routines are disrupted and employee confidence erodes

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvesafety training effectivenessVSAvoidwork routine disruption
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The system creates a virtual digital twin of the facility that replicates real-world occupancy patterns and traffic flows. Evacuation training and optimization can be conducted in this virtual environment using historical data, providing realistic training scenarios without disrupting actual work routines or requiring employees to leave their posts.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #26Copying

Solution Approach 2:

The system replaces physical live drills with a data-driven virtual simulation system that uses access control data to model realistic evacuation scenarios. This substitution maintains training effectiveness while eliminating the productivity loss and disruption associated with frequent physical drills.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

3Loss of time

If evacuation routes are optimized based on historical movement patterns, then evacuation time is reduced, but the system complexity increases due to data collection and analysis requirements

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveevacuation timeVSAvoidsystem complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Loss of timeVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The system leverages the existing access control infrastructure for multiple purposes: it continues to provide security access control while simultaneously collecting data for evacuation route optimization. This multi-functionality reduces overall system complexity by reusing existing hardware and data collection mechanisms rather than adding separate dedicated systems.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Solution Approach 2:

The system automatically collects, analyzes, and processes access control data to generate optimized evacuation routes without requiring manual intervention. The system self-updates its models and recalculates routes based on new data, reducing operational complexity and eliminating the need for manual system management while maintaining reduced evacuation times.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

Data Source

PatentEP4641481A1System and method for predicting emergency evacuation movements in a facility
Publication Date: 2025.10.29 HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC
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AI summary

Emergency evacuation times may be predicted for a facility. Location information may be captured for each of a plurality of people within the facility and one or more historical movement patterns of one or more of the plurality of people associated with the facility may be identified based at least in part on the captured location information. One or more predefined evacuation routes may be identified for the facility. The emergency evacuation time for evacuating the facility using the one or more predefined evacuation routes in response to an evacuation event may be predicted based at least in part on the one or more historical movement patterns of one or more of the plurality of people associated with the facility.