Hydrocarbon Production Forecasting Using Proppant Data
Find Innovative SolutionsGenerate Solutions
Solution Overview
Problem
Conventional hydrocarbon production calculation methods inaccurately estimate hydrocarbon output by assuming all drilled wells are immediately producing, failing to account for the number of frac stages, leading to overestimation and incorrect analysis of natural gas supply and demand trends.
Innovation Solution
A method involving a computer application that receives well parameters and proppant data to determine the number of frac stages, which is then used to forecast hydrocarbon production over time, accurately reflecting the actual production rate by considering whether a well has been fractured and the number of frac stages.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Ease of manufacture
If conventional hydrocarbon production calculation methods are used that assume all drilled wells are immediately producing, then the calculation process is simple, but the production forecast accuracy deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the well completion process into distinct stages (drilling, fracturing, proppant injection) and tracks each stage separately. By dividing the overall production forecast into contributions from individual frac stages and proppant volumes, the system achieves accurate forecasting while maintaining computational efficiency through modular calculations.
Solution Approach 2:
The system performs preliminary tracking of proppant volumes and frac stage completions before final production calculations. By pre-processing and storing completion data as it becomes available, the system prepares accurate forecast inputs in advance, resolving the contradiction between simple calculation methods and accurate forecasting.
2Measurement precision
If the number of frac stages is tracked to improve production forecast accuracy, then the production forecast accuracy improves, but the data collection complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent creates a universal data collection system that serves multiple functions: tracking frac stages, measuring proppant volumes, monitoring well completion status, and generating production forecasts. This multi-functional approach consolidates what would otherwise be separate complex tracking systems into a single integrated platform.
Solution Approach 2:
The system automatically collects and processes completion data through integrated sensors and data feeds from drilling and fracturing operations. By implementing self-service data collection where the system autonomously tracks its own parameters without manual intervention, the patent reduces operational complexity while maintaining high data accuracy.
3Measurement precision
If real-time proppant volume tracking is implemented to determine frac stages, then the production forecast accuracy improves, but the measurement system complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent introduces proppant volume as an intermediary measurement that bridges the gap between drilling operations and production forecasting. By measuring the easily quantifiable proppant volume and using it to infer frac stage completion, the system avoids the complexity of directly measuring or tracking each frac stage while maintaining high forecast accuracy.
Solution Approach 2:
The system replaces complex mechanical tracking of frac stage completion with a simpler measurement approach based on proppant volume monitoring. By substituting direct mechanical observation of fracturing operations with volumetric measurement of injected materials, the patent reduces measurement system complexity while improving data accuracy for production forecasting.
Data Source
AI summary
A method for forecasting hydrocarbon production of a well. The method includes receiving one or more parameters that describe hydrocarbon properties of the well and receiving an amount of proppants that corresponds to the well. After receiving the parameters and the amount of proppants, the method includes determining a forecast of hydrocarbon production of the well based on the parameters and the amount of proppants.