Hydrocarbon Play Analysis System Using Empirical Probability Distributions
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Solution Overview
Problem
Evaluating hydrocarbon play concepts with varying reservoir and source rock ages is challenging, often leading to arbitrary probability assignments due to complexity, which hinders accurate wellbore success predictions in hydrocarbon exploration.
Innovation Solution
A system utilizing an interactive empirical database of proven hydrocarbon play concepts, combining statistical methods to determine probability distributions of source rock occurrence and hydrocarbon migration, calculates a relative probability of wellbore success by comparing age distributions and migration probabilities between proven and proposed play concepts.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If statistical methods and empirical databases are used to evaluate play concepts with varying reservoir and source rock ages, then measurement precision of wellbore success probability is improved, but device complexity and computational requirements increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by pre-compiling empirical databases from historical well data and pre-calculating probability distributions for various geological parameters. This allows the evaluation system to quickly assess new play concepts by comparing them against pre-established statistical models, reducing real-time computational complexity while maintaining high measurement precision for wellbore success probability
Solution Approach 2:
The system transforms complex geological evaluations into standardized probability parameters by converting reservoir age, source rock characteristics, and migration potential into quantifiable probability distributions. This parameter transformation approach simplifies the evaluation process while improving measurement precision through consistent statistical frameworks
2Productivity
If arbitrary probability assignments are used to expedite decisions in complex geological regions, then productivity and decision speed are improved, but measurement precision of wellbore success probability deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The system replaces arbitrary probability assignments with standardized statistical parameters derived from empirical databases. By transforming qualitative geological assessments into quantifiable probability distributions based on reservoir age, source rock characteristics, and migration potential, the system maintains rapid decision-making speed while significantly improving measurement precision
Solution Approach 2:
The system uses historical well data and proven play concepts as templates to generate probability distributions for new evaluations. By copying and adapting statistical models from proven cases, the system expedites decision-making while maintaining precision through evidence-based probability assignments rather than arbitrary estimates
Data Source
AI summary
A system for analysis and display of hydrocarbon play information according to some aspects determines a probability of source rock occurrence according to source rock age based on a proven play concept. The system can also determine a relative probability of migration for hydrocarbons from a source rock of a proposed petroleum play concept to a reservoir. A relative probability of wellbore success for the proposed play concept can be determined at least in part based on these probabilities. The system can display the relative probability of wellbore success for the proposed play concept, either alone as part of a displayed inventory of proposed hydrocarbon play concepts. The system can produce accurate results that facilitate rapid play concept investigations for hydrocarbon exploration.