Ice Crystal Icing Probability Estimation Using Satellite and Weather Data

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Solution Overview

Problem

Conventional atmospheric ice water determination systems fail to accurately detect regions with small-particle, high-concentration ice water content, which are associated with a higher probability of ice crystal icing engine events, particularly in remote areas lacking empirical data.

Innovation Solution

An apparatus and method that utilize infrared satellite data, numerical weather prediction data, and empirical data from actual ice crystal icing events to estimate the probability of ice crystal icing engine events, focusing on convective cloud systems and specific atmospheric conditions like infrared brightness temperature, height-specific temperature, and precipitable water, to identify regions with high ice water content.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If conventional radar detection systems are used to detect ice water content, then large ice particles can be detected, but small-particle, high-concentration ice water content regions cannot be accurately detected

Engineering Contradiction:

Improveice water content detection accuracyVSAvoidsmall-particle ice water detection capability

Core Design Contradiction:

Measurement precisionVSDifficulty of detecting and measuring

Solution Approach 1:

The patent replaces conventional radar detection systems with a meteorological model-based detection approach. The system uses numerical weather prediction models, satellite data, and reanalysis data to estimate ice water content and identify regions with small-particle, high-concentration ice water, overcoming the limitations of radar systems that cannot detect these conditions accurately.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent introduces an intermediary meteorological model system that processes multiple data sources (numerical weather prediction, satellite observations, reanalysis data) to indirectly detect ice water content conditions. This intermediary model acts as a bridge between available observational data and the target parameter (ice water content), enabling detection of small-particle regions that direct radar cannot observe.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

2Measurement precision

If ground-based empirical data is used for weather pattern analysis, then accurate local weather detection is possible, but remote regions lacking ground-based observations cannot be analyzed

Engineering Contradiction:

Improveweather pattern detection accuracyVSAvoidglobal coverage area

Core Design Contradiction:

Measurement precisionVSArea of stationary object

Solution Approach 1:

The patent creates a universal meteorological model system that functions across all regions globally, regardless of local observational infrastructure. The system integrates multiple data sources including satellite observations and reanalysis data to provide consistent ice water content estimation capabilities in both ground-based and remote regions, achieving universal applicability.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #6Universality (Multi-functionality)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent changes the input parameters and data sources used in different regions. In areas with ground-based observations, it utilizes local empirical data; in remote regions, it relies on satellite observations and reanalysis data. This parameter adaptation allows the system to maintain detection capabilities across the entire globe, overcoming the limitation of ground-based data availability.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #35Parameter changes

3Quantity of substance

If conventional ice water determination systems are used, then general ice water content can be estimated, but regions with high probability of ice crystal icing engine events cannot be identified

Engineering Contradiction:

Improveice water content estimationVSAvoidice crystal icing event probability detection

Core Design Contradiction:

Quantity of substanceVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

The patent segments the ice water content analysis into different particle size categories and concentration levels. The meteorological model specifically identifies regions with small-particle, high-concentration ice water content, which are distinct from general ice water conditions. This segmentation enables precise identification of regions prone to ice crystal icing events.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #1Segmentation

Solution Approach 2:

The patent replaces conventional ice water determination systems with an advanced meteorological model that specifically targets ice crystal icing event probability. The new system uses multiple data sources and sophisticated modeling to estimate not just general ice water content but specifically the conditions that lead to ice crystal icing in aircraft engines.

Inventive Principle:

Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

Data Source

PatentEP2983014B1Ice crystal icing engine event probability estimation apparatus, system, and method

Publication Date: 2017.01.04 THE BOEING CO

AI summary

Described herein is an apparatus that includes an estimation module that estimates a probability of an ice crystal icing engine event based on infrared satellite data, numerical weather prediction data, and empirical data corresponding with at least one actual ice crystal icing engine event. The apparatus also includes a data product module that generates a data product that indicates the estimation of the probability of an ice crystal icing engine event. Additionally, the apparatus includes an output module that communicates the data product to a recipient.