Incremental Cost Prediction for User-Treatment Selection Gaps

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Solution Overview

Problem

Online systems face challenges in selecting users for treatments effectively due to varying user responses and dynamic environmental conditions, leading to insufficient user interactions.

Innovation Solution

An online system computes incremental cost predictions for user-treatment pairs using interaction and treatment cost models to optimize treatment application, addressing interaction gaps and reducing costs.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Productivity

If treatments are applied to all users, then user interaction likelihood increases, but system cost increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveuser interaction rateVSAvoidsystem cost
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSLoss of energy

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies different treatments to different user segments based on their characteristics and predicted responses. Instead of uniform treatment application, the system identifies specific user groups (e.g., high responders vs. low responders) and applies treatments selectively to those most likely to benefit, thereby improving interaction rates while controlling costs.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #3Local quality

Solution Approach 2:

The system dynamically adjusts treatment parameters such as treatment type, intensity, and timing based on user characteristics and environmental conditions. By optimizing these parameters for each user segment, the system maximizes interaction likelihood while minimizing unnecessary treatment costs.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

2Productivity

If treatments are applied to maximize interaction, then user interaction increases, but treatment cost increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveuser interaction rateVSAvoidtreatment cost
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSQuantity of substance

Solution Approach 1:

The system applies treatments to only the necessary subset of users rather than all users. By identifying and treating only those users with high predicted response rates, the system achieves sufficient interaction levels without incurring excessive treatment costs associated with treating low-response users.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #16Partial or excessive action

Solution Approach 2:

The system uses predictive models to automatically identify which users are most likely to respond to treatments, eliminating the need for manual selection. This self-service approach optimizes treatment allocation based on data-driven predictions of user response patterns.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #25Self-service

3Ease of operation

If user selection for treatment is simplified, then system complexity decreases, but interaction rate decreases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvetreatment selection simplicityVSAvoiduser interaction rate
Core Design Contradiction:
Ease of operationVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The system pre-computes user response predictions and segments users into groups based on their likely treatment responses before treatment allocation. This preliminary segmentation simplifies the subsequent treatment selection process while maintaining high interaction rates by ensuring treatments are directed at appropriate user groups.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The patent introduces predictive modeling and user segmentation as intermediary steps between the simple act of applying treatments and the complex reality of varying user responses. These intermediaries translate complex user behavior patterns into actionable segmentation rules that simplify treatment allocation decisions.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

Data Source

PatentUS12511663B2Incremental cost prediction for user treatment selection
Publication Date: 2025.12.30 MAPLEBEAR INC
  • US12511663B2 patent drawing
  • US12511663B2 patent drawing
  • US12511663B2 patent drawing

AI summary

An online system computes an incremental cost prediction for each of a set of user-treatment pairs to select a set of treatments to apply to users to satisfy a predicted interaction gap. The online system generates a set of candidate user-treatment pairs that each include user data for a user of the online system and treatment data for a treatment of a set of treatments. The online system computes an incremental interaction prediction and a treatment cost prediction for each of the candidate user-treatment pairs by applying an incremental interaction model to the user data and the treatment data in each user-treatment pair. The online system computes incremental cost predictions for each of the user-treatment pairs based on the computed incremental interaction predictions and treatment cost predictions and selects which users to apply treatments to and which treatments to apply to those users based on the incremental cost predictions.