Parcel Locker Capacity Forecasting via Pick-Up Rate Estimation
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Solution Overview
Problem
The uncertainty of parcel pick-up times in parcel locker banks leads to inefficiencies in delivery planning, increased storage times, and difficulties in providing specific delivery locations and times to customers, resulting in a risk of delivery failure and stock accumulation.
Innovation Solution
A computer-implemented method and system that forecasts the daily available capacity of parcel locker banks by estimating pick-up rates based on historical data and updating them daily, allowing for the calculation of available lockers and validation against thresholds to ensure accurate planning and minimize delivery failures.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If a booking solution is used to ensure parcel locker availability, then delivery reliability is improved, but operational flexibility and efficiency deteriorate
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by forecasting future parcel locker availability before delivery events occur. It calculates predicted availability based on historical pick-up patterns and stores this information in advance, allowing carriers to plan deliveries efficiently without needing to book specific lockers in advance, thus resolving the contradiction between reliability and flexibility
2Productivity
If wait time for pick-up information is reduced, then carrier productivity is improved, but system complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system implements feedback mechanisms by continuously monitoring actual pick-up times and using this data to refine future availability forecasts. The feedback loop allows the system to learn from historical data and improve its predictions automatically, enabling carriers to access accurate availability information without adding significant system complexity
3Productivity
If storage time for parcels is minimized, then operational efficiency is improved, but delivery reliability may deteriorate
Solution Approach 1:
The system applies dynamics by making parcel locker availability predictions adaptive and flexible rather than fixed. It continuously updates forecasts based on actual pick-up behavior patterns, allowing the system to optimize storage time dynamically while maintaining reliable delivery service, thus resolving the contradiction between efficiency and reliability
Data Source
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AI summary
A computer-implemented method for forecasting a daily available capacity of a parcel locker bank (50) which has several selectively securable parcel lockers (1-20) and allows a storage of a parcel in one of its lockers (1-20) during a maximum number of days referenced N, the method comprising, for a number (P) of parcel lockers, the following forecasting steps: - receiving (100) the number of parcels already delivered or to be delivered to the parcel locker bank for each day between a chosen future day (j) and N-1 days before said chosen future day (j), said chosen day (j) corresponding to a day on which a user wishes to deliver said parcel to the locker bank, - estimating (110) a number (Sj) of parcel lockers that should contain a parcel on said chosen future day (j), said estimation being based on said received number of parcels already delivered or to be delivered and on pick-up rates of parcel from parcel lockers, said pick-up rates depending on the number of days a parcel which is still in a parcel locker has been stored for, - calculating (120) a number (Dj) of available parcel locker(s) of said locker bank on said chosen future day (j) resulting from the subtraction of said estimated number (Sj) from said number of parcel lockers (P).