Loss Distribution Calculation Using Discrete Bounds
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing loss distribution calculation systems lack accuracy due to the use of random numbers, which is also a limitation in related technologies for operational risk management.
Innovation Solution
A loss distribution calculation system that performs upside and downside discretizations of the scale distribution to calculate sub-composite distributions, allowing for the calculation of upper and lower bounds of the loss distribution function, thereby ensuring accuracy through the use of these bounds as approximate values.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If Monte Carlo simulation with random numbers is used to calculate loss distribution, then the calculation process is simple and can be implemented, but the accuracy of the calculation results cannot be guaranteed
Solution Approach 1:
The patent segments the loss distribution calculation into multiple discrete components: frequency distribution calculation, scale distribution discretization, and composite distribution assembly. By dividing the continuous loss distribution into discrete bins and calculating contributions from each bin separately, the method achieves deterministic results while maintaining computational tractability. This segmentation eliminates random number generation while preserving the essential stochastic characteristics through discrete probability mass functions.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent transforms the continuous scale distribution parameters into discrete parameters through discretization. By converting continuous loss amounts into discrete bins with specific boundaries and probability masses, the method changes the mathematical representation from continuous random variables to discrete probability distributions. This parameter transformation enables exact calculation of loss distribution without relying on Monte Carlo sampling, thereby guaranteeing accuracy while simplifying the computational approach.
2Measurement precision
If discretization of scale distribution is performed to calculate sub-composite distributions, then accuracy is improved by obtaining upper and lower bounds, but calculation complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary discretization of the scale distribution into upper and lower bound distributions before calculating the composite loss distribution. By pre-defining discrete bins and their associated probability masses, the method prepares the computational framework in advance, allowing for efficient calculation of the final loss distribution. This preliminary action eliminates the need for iterative Monte Carlo simulations, reducing calculation time while ensuring accuracy through deterministic bound calculations.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent calculates both upper and lower bound sub-composite distributions, which is more computation than a single-point estimate would require. However, this excessive action provides guaranteed accuracy bounds and enables the determination of the true loss distribution within a known error margin. The dual-bound approach ensures that the actual loss distribution lies within the calculated bounds, providing rigorous accuracy guarantees that justify the additional computational effort.
Data Source
AI summary
A loss distribution calculation system including: a section that performs at least one of upside and downside discretizations for a scale distribution; a section that calculates, after dividing all events, a probability value of a cumulative sum of losses for a portion out of all events in order to calculate at least one of upside and downside sub-composite distributions, the upside sub-composite distribution being calculated based on the frequency distribution and the upside-discretized scale distribution, and the downside sub-composite distribution being calculated based on the frequency distribution and the downside-discretized scale distribution; a section that calculates upper and lower bounds of a loss distribution function based on at least one of the upside and downside sub-composite distributions, calculates a function, as an approximate value of the loss distribution function, based on at least one of the upside and downside sub-composite distributions, and calculates an accuracy of the approximate value.


