Production Line Work Prioritization Using MAP Time Estimation
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing methods for determining the work priority order during momentary stoppages in production lines fail to accurately account for deviations between expected and actual processing times, leading to inappropriate work orders and potential delays.
Innovation Solution
A work assistance device and method that uses a server to estimate processing times through maximum a posteriori probability estimation, identify bottleneck steps, and determine the optimal work priority order based on actual production data, ensuring timely completion of production tasks.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Loss of time
If work priority order is determined based on expected processing times from production plans, then work order can be established in advance, but the work order becomes inaccurate when actual processing times deviate from expected times
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary estimation of processing times using maximum a posteriori probability estimation based on historical data before determining work priority order. This allows the system to proactively adjust work orders based on statistically informed predictions rather than relying solely on static production plans, thereby maintaining accuracy despite deviations from expected times.
Solution Approach 2:
The system continuously collects actual processing time data and uses it to update the maximum a posteriori probability estimation. This feedback mechanism allows the system to adapt to changing conditions and improve the accuracy of processing time predictions over time, ensuring that work priority orders remain optimal even when actual times deviate from initial expectations.
2Reliability
If multiple momentary stoppages occur simultaneously in different production lines, then comprehensive coverage is achieved, but determining the correct work sequence becomes complex and error-prone
Solution Approach 1:
The system transforms the complex multi-line stoppage problem into a comparable metric by estimating processing times for each affected line and calculating work priority orders based on these standardized parameters. This allows direct comparison and sequential ordering of stoppage responses across different production lines, simplifying the determination process while maintaining reliability.
3Productivity
If work priority is assigned based on bottleneck step identification, then critical path optimization is achieved, but the bottleneck identification becomes inaccurate when processing times vary from plan
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary maximum a posteriori probability estimation of processing times for all steps before identifying bottlenecks. This statistical pre-assessment accounts for historical variability and provides a more reliable basis for bottleneck identification than static production plan times, ensuring that critical path optimization remains accurate even when actual times deviate from expectations.
Solution Approach 2:
The system continuously updates processing time estimates using actual measurement feedback and recalculates bottleneck identification. This dynamic adjustment ensures that bottleneck identification remains accurate despite variations in actual processing times, as the system adapts to real-world conditions rather than relying on theoretical plan values.
Data Source
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AI summary
In cases (S12: yes) when a momentary stoppage detection unit has detected that a plurality of momentary stoppages have occurred in production lines, a processing time estimation unit acquires observed values of processing times in the past which were required for each device to produce the figure numbers being produced by each of a plurality of surface mounting lines at a point in time when a plurality of problems had occurred, and performs, on the basis of a prior distribution stored in a production plan information DB, and the acquired observed values of the processing times, maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation (S14) of the processing times required to produce the figure numbers being produced by each of the devices of each of the surface mounting lines 20. Accordingly, a work order processor can appropriately determine the work priority order of each of the devices on the basis of the estimated processing times.