Micro-betting Odds Calculation via Preliminary Data Analysis
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Solution Overview
Problem
In micro-betting or micro-wagering on live sporting events, the short window between a play's start and outcome can hinder bettors who react slowly or prefer deeper thought, making future wagers or those based on combinations of events less relevant, aligning more with traditional sports betting rather than micro-betting's needs.
Innovation Solution
A system that collects data on past and current plays in a live sporting event, compares it to historical data, and calculates odds for future actions, allowing for wagers on upcoming events before the current play concludes, using sensors and historical play databases to determine and display odds for next actions such as player substitutions or subsequent plays.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If odds are calculated only after a play concludes, then measurement accuracy is improved, but response time deteriorates making wagers irrelevant for slow-reacting bettors
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary actions by collecting data during the current play and pre-calculating odds for the next play before the current play concludes. This allows bettors to place wagers on future plays in advance, addressing the time constraint issue while maintaining odds accuracy through continuous data collection and historical comparison.
2Measurement precision
If data collection continues until play conclusion, then odds accuracy is improved, but wager relevance deteriorates for future plays
Solution Approach 1:
The system stops data collection before the current play concludes and uses accumulated data to calculate odds for future plays. This preliminary action enables the system to offer wagers on upcoming plays while maintaining sufficient accuracy through historical data comparison, thereby increasing wager opportunity frequency without sacrificing odds quality.
Solution Approach 2:
The system dynamically adjusts the data collection window based on the play's progression and the specific wager type. By flexibly determining when to stop collecting data and switch to historical comparison, the system optimizes both odds accuracy and wager relevance for different sporting scenarios.
3Loss of time
If wagers are offered on distant future events, then bettor decision time is improved, but micro-betting relevance deteriorates
Solution Approach 1:
The system segments wagering opportunities into distinct time-based categories: immediate next-play wagers, future play wagers, and combination wagers. This segmentation allows the system to offer multiple wager types with different time horizons, accommodating both quick-reacting bettors and those needing more decision time while maintaining micro-betting relevance through play-by-play granularity.
Data Source
AI summary
A method of wagering on micro markets that are not related to the current play. For example, wagering on the outcome of the third batter due up in the inning.