Stochastic Model for Missile Negation Probability
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current missile defense performance assessment techniques focus on kinetic solutions and fail to account for non-kinetic countermeasures, making them incomplete, as they do not consider methods to mitigate ballistic missile threats before launch and lack a comprehensive way to calculate engagement success for non-kinetic measures, which complicates optimization and confidence in countermeasure effectiveness.
Innovation Solution
Implementing a stochastic mathematical model (SMM) to compute the Probability of Ballistic Missile Negation (Pn) for non-kinetic countermeasures across various phases of a missile's life cycle, including manufacturing, fielding, and boost phases, and providing a quantifiable indicator of confidence in these computations, using vulnerability-technique pairs and assigning scores based on expert judgment.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If kinetic solutions are used to counter ballistic missile threats, then engagement success can be measured with physical measurements, but the assessment remains incomplete by excluding non-kinetic countermeasures
Solution Approach 1:
The patent creates a universal assessment framework that evaluates both kinetic and non-kinetic countermeasures through a common probability-based methodology. The system assigns probabilities to different countermeasure types (cyber, electronic warfare, kinetic) and integrates them into a unified missile defense performance assessment, allowing versatile coverage of multiple countermeasure domains while maintaining measurement rigor through probabilistic analysis
2Adaptability or versatility
If non-kinetic countermeasures are considered before launch and during boost phase, then comprehensive assessment is improved, but calculation complexity increases due to lack of physical measurements
Solution Approach 1:
The patent replaces physical measurement-based assessment with a probabilistic mathematical model. Instead of relying on physical measurements of kinetic countermeasures, the system uses probability assignments and stochastic mathematical models to assess both kinetic and non-kinetic countermeasures uniformly. This substitution simplifies the complexity by providing a consistent calculation framework that handles non-kinetic measures without requiring complex physical measurement systems
3Reliability
If multiple countermeasure techniques are optimized against enemy vulnerabilities, then defense effectiveness improves, but the lack of quantifiable confidence indicators complicates optimization
Solution Approach 1:
The patent implements feedback through probability outputs and confidence indicators that quantify the effectiveness of countermeasure techniques. The system calculates probabilities of countermeasure success and provides confidence levels that feed back into the optimization process, enabling decision-makers to assess and compare different countermeasure combinations against identified enemy vulnerabilities with quantifiable confidence rather than qualitative judgments
Data Source
AI summary
Embodiments of a method and apparatus for eliminating a missile threat are generally described herein. In some embodiments, the method includes identifying a vulnerability associated with the missile threat. The method can further include identifying a technique for exploiting the vulnerability to generate a vulnerability-technique (VT) pair. The method can further include applying a stochastic mathematical model (SMM) to generate a negation value, the negation value being representative of a probability that the technique of the respective VT pair will eliminate the threat by exploiting the vulnerability. The method can further include providing a recommendation for implementation the technique to eliminate the missile threat responsive to receiving a user selection of the technique, the user selection being selected based on the generated negation value. Other example methods, systems, and apparatuses are described.