ML-Based User Outcome Prediction System

Resolve Bottlenecks,
Find Innovative Solutions
Generate Solutions

Solution Overview

Problem

Conventional techniques for analyzing user populations are ineffective in predicting future actions, making it difficult for organizations to take preventive measures, as they only report data after the fact.

Innovation Solution

An online system uses a machine learning model to analyze user data, generating alerts based on predicted outcomes by identifying anomalies and trends in user behavior, allowing for proactive measures.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Loss of time

If conventional reporting techniques are used to analyze user populations, then data can be collected and reported, but the reporting occurs after the fact and cannot enable preventive actions

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvetime delay in reportingVSAvoideffectiveness for preventive actions
Core Design Contradiction:
Loss of timeVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies preliminary action by using machine learning models to predict future user actions and generate alerts before the actual events occur. The system analyzes historical data and user behavior patterns to forecast outcomes such as user churn, fraud, or engagement drops, enabling organizations to take preventive measures in advance rather than reacting after the fact.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

Solution Approach 2:

The system implements beforehand cushioning by creating a buffer of predictive insights that cushion against potential negative outcomes. The machine learning models continuously monitor and predict risks, allowing organizations to prepare mitigation strategies and resources in advance, thus cushioning the impact before adverse events fully materialize.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #11Beforehand cushioning (Prior cushioning)

2Reliability

If machine learning models are implemented to predict user outcomes, then preventive actions can be taken, but the system complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvepredictive accuracyVSAvoidsystem complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
ReliabilityVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent uses an intermediary approach by introducing machine learning models as mediators between raw user data and actionable insights. These models serve as intermediaries that automatically process complex data patterns, extract meaningful predictions, and generate alerts, thereby managing system complexity through specialized intermediate layers rather than requiring end-to-end complex system design.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

Solution Approach 2:

The system applies segmentation by dividing the complex predictive analytics function into separate modular components: data collection modules, machine learning model modules, alert generation modules, and reporting modules. This segmentation allows each component to be developed, maintained, and scaled independently, reducing overall system complexity while maintaining predictive accuracy.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #1Segmentation

3Measurement precision

If comprehensive user data is collected for accurate predictions, then prediction quality improves, but data privacy and security concerns increase

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveprediction qualityVSAvoiddata privacy risks
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSObject-affected harmful factors

Solution Approach 1:

The patent applies parameter changes by transforming raw user data into aggregated statistical features and model inputs that maintain predictive power while reducing identifiable personal information. The machine learning models work with transformed parameters such as behavior patterns, aggregate metrics, and normalized features rather than raw personal data, thereby improving prediction quality while mitigating privacy risks through parameter transformation.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #35Parameter changes

Data Source

PatentUS11663220B1Machine learning based prediction of outcomes associated with populations of users
Publication Date: 2023.05.30 MICROSOFT TECHNOLOGY LICENSING LLC
  • US11663220B1 patent drawing
  • US11663220B1 patent drawing
  • US11663220B1 patent drawing

AI summary

A system analyzes periodically collected data associated with entities, for example, users, servers, or systems. The system determines anomalies associated with populations of entities. The system excludes anomalies from consideration to increase efficiency of execution. The system may rank the anomalies based on relevance scores. The system determines relevance scores based on various factors describing the sets of entities. The system may present information describing the anomalies based on the ranking. The system may use a machine learning based model for predicting likelihoods of outcomes associated with sets of entities. The system generates alerts for reporting the outcomes based on the predictions.