Multimarker Mortality Risk Score for Heart Failure
Find Innovative SolutionsGenerate Solutions
Solution Overview
Problem
Current methods for determining the risk of mortality in subjects with cardiovascular disease, such as heart failure, often rely on clinical assessments and lack a standardized, multi-marker approach, leading to inconsistent treatment decisions and potential misallocation of healthcare resources.
Innovation Solution
A computer-implemented method using a multimarker mortality risk score calculated from serum levels of biomarkers like ST2, age, troponin, natriuretic peptides, and clinical parameters like NYHA score and systolic blood pressure, compared to a reference score to assess the risk of mortality within specific time frames, guiding treatment decisions and resource allocation.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If multiple biomarkers and clinical parameters are combined to create a multimarker risk score, then measurement precision and reliability of mortality risk prediction are improved, but device complexity and difficulty of detecting and measuring increase
Solution Approach 1:
The patent combines multiple biomarkers (ST2, BNP, troponin) and clinical parameters (age, blood pressure, renal function) into a single integrated multimarker risk score. This merging of multiple measurement elements into one composite indicator improves prediction accuracy while providing a unified assessment tool that manages complexity through integration.
Solution Approach 2:
The multimarker risk score serves multiple functions: it predicts short-term mortality risk, guides treatment decisions (aggressive vs. conservative), determines admission disposition (inpatient vs. outpatient), and stratifies patients for clinical trials. This multi-functionality justifies the complexity by providing comprehensive clinical utility from a single assessment system.
2Reliability
If multiple biomarkers and clinical parameters are combined to create a multimarker risk score, then reliability of mortality risk prediction is improved, but difficulty of detecting and measuring increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent integrates multiple biomarker measurements and clinical parameter assessments into a single calculated risk score using a standardized formula. This merging approach improves reliability by consistently combining the same elements in the same way, while the systematic nature of the combination reduces measurement difficulty through standardization.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent transforms multiple raw parameters (biomarker levels, clinical measurements) into a standardized risk score through mathematical transformation. This parameter change from diverse units to a unified score improves reliability by eliminating unit inconsistencies and reduces measurement difficulty by providing a single standardized output metric.
3Measurement precision
If a multimarker approach is implemented for risk stratification, then treatment decision accuracy is improved, but loss of time for assessment increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent measures all required biomarkers and clinical parameters during the initial patient evaluation and admission workup, before treatment decisions are needed. This preliminary collection of all assessment data eliminates the need for sequential measurements, improving treatment decision accuracy while minimizing assessment time by having all data ready simultaneously.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent combines multiple assessment elements into a single calculated risk score that can be computed once all input data are available. This merging allows treatment decisions to be based on one integrated value rather than requiring interpretation of multiple separate measurements, improving decision accuracy while reducing the time needed to synthesize the information.
4Ease of operation
If clinical assessments are used without standardized multi-marker approaches, then ease of operation is maintained, but measurement precision and reliability deteriorate
Solution Approach 1:
The multimarker risk score provides a single standardized metric that works across different patient populations, clinical settings, and decision contexts (admission, treatment intensity, follow-up). This universal applicability maintains ease of operation by providing one consistent tool while dramatically improving measurement precision through the incorporation of multiple validated biomarkers and parameters.
Solution Approach 2:
The patent transforms complex multi-parameter clinical data into a standardized risk score that is easy to interpret and use. This parameter transformation from multiple raw values to a single standardized metric maintains operational simplicity while improving measurement precision by systematically incorporating multiple evidence-based indicators.
Data Source
Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
AI summary
Measurement of circulating ST2 and natriuretic peptide (e.g., NT-proBNP) concentrations is useful for the prognostic evaluation of subjects, in particular for the prediction of adverse clinical outcomes, e.g., mortality, transplantation, and heart failure.