Multi-Model State Estimation for Probabilistic Plant Management
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing information processing devices for managing industrial plants lack a method to appropriately set state quantity values based on estimation values calculated using multiple models, considering probability distributions of state quantities, which is essential for effective device management.
Innovation Solution
An information processing device is configured with an estimation unit to calculate multiple estimation values using various models, a probability specification unit to determine corresponding probabilities based on probability distributions, and a management value specification unit to set management values for the target device, incorporating evaluation values and conditional probability distributions.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Reliability
If a single model is used to estimate state quantity values, then the device complexity is reduced, but the reliability and accuracy of management decisions deteriorate
Solution Approach 1:
The patent combines multiple estimation models (physical model, statistical model, neural network model) to estimate state quantity values. By merging the strengths of different models, the system achieves higher reliability in management decisions while managing the complexity through systematic integration of model outputs using probability distributions.
2Measurement precision
If multiple models are used to calculate estimation values, then the accuracy of state quantity estimation is improved, but the complexity of processing and specifying management values increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent transforms multiple estimation values from different models into a unified management value by changing the parameter representation. It uses probability distributions to convert diverse model outputs into a standardized format that can be processed systematically, thereby improving estimation accuracy while managing processing complexity through parameter transformation.
3Reliability
If probability distributions are considered in setting management values, then the reliability of device management is improved, but the complexity of calculation and processing increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent performs preliminary actions by pre-establishing probability distributions for state quantity values before making management decisions. By preparing the probability framework in advance, the system can quickly determine management values when estimation values are obtained, thereby improving reliability while minimizing the time loss during actual decision-making processes.
Data Source
AI summary
In an information processing device according to the present invention, an estimation unit is configured to estimate each of a plurality of estimation values related to a target state quantity by using a plurality of models for explaining a target device. A probability specification unit is configured to specify each of a plurality of probabilities corresponding to the plurality of estimation values on the basis of a probability distribution of values of state quantities related to the target state quantity. A management value specification unit is configured to specify a value to be used for management of the target device on the basis of the plurality of estimation values and the plurality of probabilities.