Net Load Forecasting via Zone Segmentation
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Solution Overview
Problem
The integration of intermittent distributed energy resources in utility grids poses challenges for load forecasting due to their intermittent nature, leading to instability and reduced accuracy in net load forecasting, especially with non-conforming loads, which complicates energy management and grid stability.
Innovation Solution
A method and system for generating net load forecasts by dividing the utility grid into load forecast zones based on climate and load profile types, assigning loads and distributed energy resources to these zones, and combining forecasts to improve accuracy and stability.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Adaptability or versatility
If distributed energy resources are integrated into the utility grid, then energy supply diversity is improved, but net load forecasting accuracy deteriorates due to intermittent nature
Solution Approach 1:
The utility grid is divided into multiple load forecast zones based on climate zones and load profile types. Each zone is forecasted independently using statistical methods, and the results are combined to produce the overall net load forecast. This segmentation allows the forecasting system to handle the intermittent nature of distributed energy resources in each zone while maintaining overall accuracy.
2Measurement precision
If statistical forecasting methods are used for conforming loads, then forecasting accuracy is improved, but non-conforming loads cannot be accurately forecasted
Solution Approach 1:
The patent applies different forecasting approaches to different types of loads within the same grid system. Conforming loads are forecasted using statistical methods appropriate for their predictable patterns, while non-conforming loads are handled through the zone-based aggregation approach that accounts for their variability. This local quality differentiation ensures optimal forecasting accuracy for each load type.
3Measurement precision
If the utility grid is divided into load forecast zones, then net load forecasting accuracy is improved, but system complexity increases
Solution Approach 1:
The patent uses a universal forecasting framework that can handle multiple types of loads and distributed energy resources across different climate zones using the same statistical methods and zone-based approach. This multi-functionality reduces the need for entirely different forecasting systems for different scenarios, thereby managing complexity while maintaining accuracy.
Data Source
AI summary
A method for generating a net load forecast for a utility grid, the grid including intermittent distributed energy resources and loads, comprising: defining two or more load forecast zones, each zone being associated with a load profile type and a climate zone type; assigning each of the loads to one of the zones based on the load profile and climate zone types associated with the load;assigning each of the energy resources to at least one of the zones based on the climate zone type associated with the energy resource; for each zone, generating an electrical energy consumption forecast for loads, an electric power generation forecast for energy resources, and a net load forecast from the electrical energy consumption and electric power generation forecasts; combining the net load forecast for each zone to generate the net load forecast for the grid; and, presenting the net load forecast on a display. The utility grid may be or may include a microgrid.