Directed Graph Network Failure Modeling for Cascading Risk Assessment
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Solution Overview
Problem
Existing network management systems fail to accurately assess and manage the cascading effects of failures among interdependent assets, leading to inefficiencies in identifying and addressing vulnerabilities.
Innovation Solution
A method and system for managing networks by generating a directed graph with nodes representing assets, determining individual failure probabilities, computing downstream and upstream failure probabilities, and calculating network failure probabilities to inform proactive management strategies.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If traditional network management methods are used to monitor assets, then the system is simple to operate, but it fails to accurately assess cascading failure effects and identify vulnerabilities
Solution Approach 1:
The network management system segments the assessment process into distinct components: individual failure probability determination for each asset, downstream failure probability calculation, upstream failure probability calculation, and integrated network failure probability computation. This segmentation allows complex cascading failure analysis to be broken down into manageable computational steps, improving measurement precision without overwhelming system complexity
Solution Approach 2:
The system introduces a new dimensional approach by representing assets as nodes in a directed graph structure, adding topological relationships to the traditional asset monitoring framework. This graph-based dimension enables the system to capture cascading failure pathways and interdependencies that traditional flat monitoring systems cannot assess, significantly improving vulnerability identification accuracy
2Reliability
If comprehensive network failure probability computation is implemented, then vulnerability identification improves, but computational resources and processing time increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system performs preliminary computations of individual failure probabilities for each asset before conducting the full cascading failure analysis. By pre-calculating these base values and storing them, the system reduces the computational burden during actual vulnerability assessments, enabling faster recomputation when new data arrives while maintaining comprehensive assessment reliability
Solution Approach 2:
The directed graph structure enables local quality analysis by allowing the system to focus computational efforts on specific regions of the network where failure probabilities are highest or where cascading effects are most likely to propagate. This localized approach reduces overall computation time while maintaining accurate vulnerability identification in critical areas
Data Source
AI summary
A system and method of managing a network with assets are described. The method includes generating a directed graph with each of the assets represented as a node, determining individual failure probability of each node, computing downstream failure probability of each node according to an arrangement of the nodes in the directed graph, computing upstream failure probability of each node according to the arrangement of the nodes in directed graph, and computing network failure probability for each node based on the corresponding individual failure probability, the downstream failure probability, and the upstream failure probability. Managing the network is based on the network failure probability of the assets.