Neural Network Uncertainty Evaluation Through Prediction Frequencies

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Solution Overview

Problem

Current methods for quantifying uncertainties in neural network predictions, particularly in perception tasks for autonomous systems, are complex and difficult to implement, lacking intuitive and simpler alternatives to Bayesian neural networks.

Innovation Solution

A method for evaluating prediction uncertainties using a neural network trained on sensor data, involving the creation of an evaluation database, inference of predicted characteristic data, determination of frequency occurrence, and comparison with true data to generate an uncertainty model, which is simpler and more intuitive than existing mathematical approaches.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Measurement precision

If Bayesian neural networks and complex mathematical frameworks are used for uncertainty estimation, then measurement precision is improved, but device complexity increases

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveuncertainty estimation accuracyVSAvoidmodel complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSDevice complexity

Solution Approach 1:

The patent replaces complex Bayesian neural networks with a simple frequency-based uncertainty estimation method. Instead of using computationally intensive mathematical frameworks, the invention uses a lightweight frequency counter that tracks prediction outcomes across multiple runs. This disposable, simple approach achieves adequate uncertainty estimation without the overhead of complex models, directly resolving the contradiction between precision and complexity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #27Cheap short-living objects (Disposable)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent substitutes complex mathematical mechanisms (Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo dropout, epistemic uncertainty modeling) with a simple frequency-based statistical approach. By replacing the mechanical/mathematical complexity of Bayesian networks with a straightforward frequency counting system, the invention maintains measurement precision while dramatically reducing device complexity.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

2Measurement precision

If Bayesian neural networks and complex mathematical frameworks are used for uncertainty estimation, then measurement precision is improved, but ease of operation deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveuncertainty estimation accuracyVSAvoidimplementation ease
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSEase of operation

Solution Approach 1:

The patent replaces difficult-to-implement Bayesian neural networks with a simple frequency-based method that is easy to operate. The frequency counter requires minimal configuration and can be implemented with simple code, making the system much easier to operate while maintaining adequate uncertainty estimation precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #27Cheap short-living objects (Disposable)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent extracts the essential function of uncertainty estimation from complex Bayesian frameworks and isolates it into a simple frequency-based mechanism. By taking out only the necessary computational elements and removing the complex mathematical overhead, the invention improves ease of operation while preserving measurement precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #2Taking out (Extraction)

3Measurement precision

If complex mathematical frameworks are used for uncertainty modeling, then measurement precision is improved, but ease of manufacture deteriorates

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveuncertainty quantification accuracyVSAvoidimplementation complexity
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSEase of manufacture

Solution Approach 1:

The patent replaces complex mathematical frameworks with a simple, disposable frequency-based approach. The frequency counter can be implemented with minimal resources and simple code, making the system easier to manufacture and deploy while maintaining adequate uncertainty quantification precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #27Cheap short-living objects (Disposable)

Solution Approach 2:

The patent substitutes complex mathematical mechanisms with a simple frequency-based system. This replacement reduces implementation complexity and makes the uncertainty estimation more manufacturable and deployable in real-world systems while preserving measurement precision.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #28Mechanics substitution (Replace mechanical system)

Data Source

PatentEP4441636B1Method for evaluating prediction uncertainties in a neural network
Publication Date: 2025.10.08 COMMISSARIAT A LENERGIE ATOMIQUE ET AUX ENERGIES ALTERNATIVES
  • EP4441636B1 patent drawingFigure 1
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  • EP4441636B1 patent drawingFigure 3

AI summary

The present invention relates to a method for evaluating prediction uncertainties in a neural network, the neural network being capable of determining a set of characteristic data for a scene to be characterised according to a dataset obtained for the scene at a given time by a useful sensor, each set of characteristic data comprising the division of the scene into zones with a characteristic assigned to each zone of the scene at the given time, the method comprising the following steps: a. obtaining, for a reference scene, sets of predicted characteristic data by means of neural network interference; b. for each zone of the reference scene, determining the frequency of occurrence of each characteristic associated with the zone; c. evaluating the prediction uncertainties of the neural network according to the determined frequencies of occurrence.