Notification Lift Metric for Incremental Engagement
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Solution Overview
Problem
Current notification systems often rely solely on predicted click-through rates to decide whether to send unsolicited notifications, failing to consider the user's likelihood of engaging with digital content without notifications, leading to user annoyance and resource wastage.
Innovation Solution
Implementing a system that calculates an incremental benefit by comparing the notification likelihood with a baseline likelihood of user engagement, using machine learning models to determine whether to send unsolicited notifications based on the difference between these probabilities, and considering disengagement probabilities to conserve resources.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Productivity
If notifications are sent based solely on predicted click-through rate, then the likelihood of user engagement with the notification is improved, but user annoyance and distraction increase
Solution Approach 1:
The system changes the decision parameter from单一的predicted click-through rate to a comparative metric (lift) that measures the incremental benefit of notifications. By calculating the difference between notification likelihood and baseline likelihood, the system identifies notifications that provide genuine incremental value rather than relying on absolute engagement probabilities alone.
Solution Approach 2:
The system incorporates feedback loops where user interactions with notifications and digital content are continuously monitored. This feedback is used to update machine learning models that predict both notification likelihood and baseline likelihood, enabling the system to learn from past behavior and improve its notification sending decisions over time.
2Productivity
If more unsolicited notifications are sent to increase engagement opportunities, then the potential benefit from user engagement is improved, but resource wastage increases
Solution Approach 1:
The system applies partial action by sending notifications only when the incremental benefit (lift) exceeds a threshold, rather than sending all potentially engaging notifications. This selective approach avoids the excessive action of sending notifications that would not provide meaningful incremental value, thereby reducing resource wastage while maintaining engagement opportunities.
3Device complexity
If the notification system relies only on predicted click-through rate, then the system complexity is reduced, but the measurement precision of notification benefit is insufficient
Solution Approach 1:
The system segments the notification evaluation process into two distinct probability calculations: notification likelihood (probability of engagement with notification) and baseline likelihood (probability of engagement without notification). This segmentation allows for precise measurement of incremental benefit by comparing the two separate metrics, rather than relying on a single aggregate measure.
Data Source
AI summary
Processor(s) of a client device can: analyze one or more features of an electronic resource that is under consideration for solicitation to a user; determine a notification likelihood that the user will access the electronic resource in response to an unsolicited notification of the electronic resource being output to the user; determine a baseline likelihood that the user will access the electronic resource without being solicited; compare the notification likelihood with the baseline likelihood; and cause, based on the comparing, the unsolicited notification to be output to the user. In some implementations, determining the notification likelihood and/or the baseline likelihood is based on applying data associated with the electronic resource as input across a machine learning model to generate output indicative of the notification likelihood and/or the baseline likelihood. In other implementations, determining the notification likelihood and/or the baseline likelihood is based on past behavior or preference(s) of the user.


