Nuclear Operator Reliability Evaluation via Task Time Probability
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Solution Overview
Problem
The evaluation of nuclear power plant operator reliability based on task execution time lacks standard criteria and clear calculations for available and required times, leading to ambiguous probability calculations in conventional methods.
Innovation Solution
An apparatus and method that calculate expected task finishing times, determine task completion times, calculate total execution times, and assess available times to predict task failure probabilities using probability distribution information, thereby providing a clear and automatic reliability evaluation.
Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles
Engineering Contradiction Analysis
1Measurement precision
If conventional methods are used to evaluate operator reliability, then the evaluation process is simple, but the calculation results are ambiguous and lack clarity
Solution Approach 1:
The evaluation system is segmented into distinct functional units: a task completion time determining unit that calculates expected finishing times for individual tasks, an initial time determining unit that establishes baseline timestamps, a total execution time calculation unit that aggregates task durations, an available time calculation unit that determines time windows, and a task failure probability calculation unit that computes failure probabilities. This segmentation transforms the ambiguous conventional evaluation into a structured, multi-stage calculation process that enhances measurement precision while managing complexity through modular design.
2Reliability
If multiple cues are considered for accident events, then the evaluation comprehensiveness is improved, but the calculation of TimeAvailable and TimeRequired becomes ambiguous
Solution Approach 1:
The system implements feedback mechanisms where the task completion time determining unit receives input data including multiple cues for accident events, processes them through the calculation chain, and feeds back refined time parameters. The initial time determining unit provides feedback on baseline timestamps, while the total execution time calculation unit feeds back aggregated durations to the available time calculation unit. This feedback loop ensures that multiple cues are systematically integrated without losing calculation clarity, as each unit processes information in a defined sequence with explicit input-output relationships.
Data Source
AI summary
In an apparatus for evaluating reliability of a nuclear power plant operator, an expected task finishing time for each task of the operator is calculated based on input data for reliability evaluation of the operator to determine a task completion time for each task of the operator based on the calculated expected task finishing time and the input data. An initial time for the tasks is determined based on the input data and the task completion time for a current task. A total execution time of the operator is calculated based on the determined task completion time and initial time. An available time allowed for the operator to complete the tasks is calculated based on a predetermined allowed time and the determined initial time. A task failure probability is obtained from the difference between the calculated total execution time and the calculated available time based on probability distribution information.