Physical Object Performance Prediction from Test and Model Data

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Solution Overview

Problem

Existing methods for testing physical object performance are time-consuming and inefficient, with mathematical physics models often producing inaccurate predictions due to measurement errors and environmental uncertainties.

Innovation Solution

A predictive model is trained using ground-truth data and baseline model predictions, incorporating Bayesian techniques to account for uncertainty and measurement errors, allowing for more accurate simulation of physical object performance.

Engineering Contradictions & Design Principles

VSEngineering Contradiction Analysis

1Loss of time

If mathematical physics models are used to predict object performance, then testing time is reduced, but prediction accuracy deteriorates due to measurement errors and environmental uncertainties

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvetesting timeVSAvoidprediction accuracy
Core Design Contradiction:
Loss of timeVSMeasurement precision

Solution Approach 1:

A Bayesian predictive model is introduced as an intermediary between the computational model and the physical object. This predictive model learns the mapping between computational model predictions and actual measured performance, accounting for measurement errors and environmental uncertainties. The predictive model acts as a mediator that translates computational model outputs into accurate performance predictions by incorporating uncertainty quantification and calibration based on training data.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #24Intermediary (Mediator)

2Measurement precision

If manual testing of each sample is performed to ensure performance compliance, then prediction accuracy is improved, but productivity deteriorates due to time-consuming processes

Engineering Contradiction:
Improveperformance verification accuracyVSAvoidtesting throughput
Core Design Contradiction:
Measurement precisionVSProductivity

Solution Approach 1:

The system performs preliminary action by training the Bayesian predictive model on a dataset containing both computational model predictions and corresponding measured performance values before actual performance prediction. This pre-training phase captures the relationship between computational models and real-world measurements, enabling the model to compensate for errors and uncertainties. Once trained, the model can rapidly predict performance of new samples without requiring manual testing, thus improving productivity while maintaining accuracy.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #10Preliminary action

3Productivity

If computational models are used to minimize testing, then productivity is improved, but reliability deteriorates due to divergent results from actual tested performance

Engineering Contradiction:
Improvetesting efficiencyVSAvoidprediction reliability
Core Design Contradiction:
ProductivityVSReliability

Solution Approach 1:

The Bayesian predictive model incorporates feedback mechanisms by using training data that includes both computational model predictions and actual measured performance values. The model learns from the discrepancies between predicted and actual values, adjusting its parameters to minimize prediction errors. This feedback loop enables the model to continuously improve its reliability by capturing the relationship between computational outputs and real-world measurements, thereby maintaining high prediction reliability while preserving testing efficiency.

Inventive Principle:
Principle #23Feedback

Data Source

PatentUS20250284987A1Combining test and computational model data for predicting object performance
Publication Date: 2025.09.11 THE BOEING CO
  • US20250284987A1 patent drawing
  • US20250284987A1 patent drawing
  • US20250284987A1 patent drawing

AI summary

The present disclosure provides a processor-implemented method in one aspect, the processor-implemented method including: generating a training data set including a plurality of exemplars, each exemplar of the plurality of exemplars including ground-truth values for one or more properties of a sample of an object and corresponding predicted values for the one or more properties of the sample of the object, the corresponding predicted values for the one or more properties of the sample of the object being generated based on a computational model of the object; training a predictive model to predict the one or more properties of samples of the object based on the training data set; and predicting, using the predictive model, one or more properties of a new sample of the object.